314
ACUS11 KWNS 040803
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 040803
OKZ000-TXZ000-041000-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0355
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0303 AM CDT SAT APR 04 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 95...
VALID 040803Z - 041000Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 95
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...LOCALLY DAMAGING GUSTS REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH A
BACK-BUILDING MCS. A DOWNSTREAM WATCH ISSUANCE IS NOT CURRENTLY
EXPECTED, THOUGH TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED.
DISCUSSION...THE LATEST RADAR DATA FROM KFDR SHOWS A BACK-BUILDING
MCS MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL OK INTO
NORTH-CENTRAL TX. THE FWS VWP IS SAMPLING A 50-KT SOUTHERLY
LOW-LEVEL JET AND RELATED WARM-AIR ADVECTION FEEDING INTO THIS
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM, AND GIVEN UPPER 60S BOUNDARY-LAYER DEWPOINTS AND
30 TO 40 KT OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR, LOCALLY DAMAGING GUSTS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE ORIENTATION OF THE MCS WITH RESPECT TO
THE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND LOW-LEVEL JET, ANAFRONTAL CONVECTION SHOULD
CONTINUE TO LIMIT THE OVERALL SEVERE RISK. THE ONE EXCEPTION IS
ALONG THE RED RIVER IN SOUTH-CENTRAL OK AND NORTH-CENTRAL TX, WHERE
THE WESTERLY DEEP-LAYER SHEAR HAS AN OBLIQUE ORIENTATION TO THE
LINE, WHICH COULD SUPPORT NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG/AHEAD OF
THE GUST FRONT AND A RELATIVELY GREATER DAMAGING-WIND RISK IN THE
NEAR-TERM. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE SEVERE RISK WILL REMAIN TOO
LOCALIZED AND MARGINAL FOR A NEW DOWNSTREAM WATCH, THOUGH TRENDS
WILL BE MONITORED.
..WEINMAN/GUYER.. 04/04/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...
LAT...LON 33489886 33979778 34429726 34529687 34459646 34249619
33899616 33439649 32689773 32589829 32839881 33229899
33489886
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page