357
ACUS11 KWNS 041715
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 041714
MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-041915-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0357
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1214 PM CDT SAT APR 04 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...SABINE VALLEY INTO LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 041714Z - 041915Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...FILTERED SURFACE HEATING OF A VERY MOIST ARIMASS WILL
SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF WIND DAMAGE THIS
AFTERNOON. LACK OF STORM ORGANIZATION SHOULD PRECLUDE WATCH
ISSUANCE, HOWEVER.
DISCUSSION...BROKEN CLOUD COVER IS PROMOTING MODEST SURFACE HEATING
OF A VERY MOIST (UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S F DEWPOINTS) AIRMASS EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. WITH TIME, ADDITIONAL HEATING SHOULD ALLOW FOR
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. THIS REGION EXISTS ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE STRONGER
MID-LEVEL WINDS, BUT WILL HAVE 1500+ J/KG MLCAPE BY LATE AFTERNOON.
25-35 KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT MARGINALLY, TRANSIENTLY
ORGANIZED STORMS CAPABLE OF WIND DAMAGE. POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND A LINEAR MODE WILL LIMIT HAIL POTENTIAL. THERE IS LINGERING,
MODESTLY STRONG 850 MB WINDS THAT WILL BE DIMINISHING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THE TORNADO THREAT SHOULD BE LOW AND CONDITIONAL IN THE
SHORT-TERM AND DECREASING WITH TIME.
..WENDT/GLEASON.. 04/04/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...
LAT...LON 30979636 31989598 33399367 34279100 34728917 34308836
32229001 30919255 30479412 30549581 30649617 30979636
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
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