900
ACUS11 KWNS 041747
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 041746
PAZ000-NYZ000-OHZ000-MIZ000-042015-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0358
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1246 PM CDT SAT APR 04 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OHIO TOWARD LAKE ERIE AND
VICINITY
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 041746Z - 042015Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, WITH
AREAS OF STRONG TO DAMAGING GUSTS POSSIBLE. A BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT
BE RULED OUT NEAR THE WARM FRONT.
DISCUSSION...A COMPOSITE COLD FRONT, REINFORCED BY OUTFLOW FROM
ONGOING RAIN, IS NEARING THE IN/OH BORDER, AND EXTENDING SOUTH
ACROSS THE OH RIVER. MEANWHILE, A WARM FRONT IS MOVING INTO EXTREME
SOUTHEAST LOWER MI, AND EXTENDING EAST ACROSS LAKE ERIE AND INTO FAR
SOUTHWESTERN NY.
STRONG HEATING HAS ALREADY STEEPENED LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACROSS
THE WARM SECTOR, RESULTING IN STRONG SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS TO 30 KT.
AS WARMING PERSISTS, THE AIR MASS WILL DESTABILIZE FURTHER, WITH
MLCAPE TO AROUND 1000 J/KG EXPECTED.
WHILE DEEP-LAYER MEAN WIND FIELDS ARE SUBSTANTIAL WITH 40-50 KT
SPEEDS COMMON ALOFT, SHEAR IS A BIT MARGINAL. ANOTHER MITIGATING
FACTOR IS A MIDLEVEL SUBSIDENCE INVERSION, WHICH IS REDUCING OVERALL
CAPE.
DESPITE THIS, THE LEADING NORTH-SOUTH OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL SERVE AS
A FOCUS FOR RENEWED DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ADDITIONAL
STORMS MAY FORM IN THE WARM SECTOR AS THE AIR MASS BECOMES UNCAPPED.
THE STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 40+ KT MEAN WINDS ALOFT WILL AID
SURFACE GUSTS WITH ANY OF THE SUBSTANTIAL STORMS. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR
NEAR THE WARM FRONT COULD FAVOR A BRIEF TORNADO AS THE COLD FRONT OR
INDIVIDUAL CELLS INTERACT, THOUGH MUCH OF THAT ACTIVITY SHOULD
QUICKLY CROSS INTO COOLER AIR.
..JEWELL/GLEASON.. 04/04/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...
LAT...LON 40328193 39728260 39328433 39348470 39848460 40608450
41258449 41748423 42078378 42178268 42418056 42567944
42387912 42087922 41657999 41388038 40328193
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
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