078
ACUS11 KWNS 042211
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 042211
VAZ000-KYZ000-TNZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-050015-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0360
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0511 PM CDT SAT APR 04 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY INTO
CENTRAL/EASTERN KENTUCKY
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 042211Z - 050015Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
SUMMARY...ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS MAY BRING STRONG TO OCCASIONALLY
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ALABAMA, MIDDLE/EASTERN
TENNESSEE, AND CENTRAL/EASTERN KENTUCKY OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.
WATCH ISSUANCE IS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION...WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN A WEAKLY UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY 500-750 J/KG MLCAPE (PER LATEST
MESOANALYSIS) ARE ONGOING FROM PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ALABAMA INTO
MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND SOUTH-CENTRAL KENTUCKY, WITH A 47-KT WIND GUST
RECENTLY REPORTED AT SMYRNA AIRPORT (KMQY ASOS). WEAK EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR OF ONLY 20-25 KTS IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT OVERALL STORM
ORGANIZATION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING; HOWEVER, STEEP
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7.5-8.0 C/KM WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST SOME
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO OCCASIONALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH
STRONGER CONVECTIVE CORES. WATCH ISSUANCE IS NOT ANTICIPATED GIVEN
ONLY MARGINAL POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION AND MAGNITUDE OF
THE THREAT.
..CHALMERS/SMITH.. 04/04/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...FFC...LMK...OHX...BMX...HUN...
LAT...LON 35368428 34718537 34268654 33978743 33978808 34258817
34858781 35428732 35888684 36378661 37078620 37588595
37748577 38248485 38228370 37808284 36988282 35918364
35368428
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
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