388
ACUS11 KWNS 042240
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 042240
MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-050045-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0361
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0540 PM CDT SAT APR 04 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 042240Z - 050045Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
SUMMARY...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A STRONG WIND GUST OR TWO IS
POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTS SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING FROM SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS INTO NORTHERN/CENTRAL
LOUISIANA AND MUCH OF WESTERN MISSISSIPPI. SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER-70S TO LOWER-80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-60S TO NEAR 70 F
ARE SUPPORTING MODERATE BUOYANCY OF 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE. MODERATE
MID/UPPER-LEVEL FLOW IS SUPPORTING ONLY 20-30 KTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION THROUGH THIS
EVENING. GIVEN ONLY MODEST LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 6.5-7.0 C/KM,
THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS APPEARS LOW, YET AN ISOLATED
WIND GUST OR TWO IN THE 45-55 MPH RANGE IS POSSIBLE. THE GREATEST
AREA OF POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG GUST OR TWO APPEARS TO BE FROM
NORTHEASTERN LOUISIANA INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI WHERE A WEAK
MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS SUPPORTING LOCALLY GREATER EFFECTIVE SHEAR
(UP TO 35 KTS PER LATEST MESOANALYSIS), WHICH PROMOTES MARGINAL
STORM ORGANIZATION. GIVEN THE LIMITED NATURE OF SEVERE POTENTIAL,
WATCH ISSUANCE IS UNLIKELY.
..CHALMERS/SMITH.. 04/04/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...HGX...
LAT...LON 29659581 30419535 31339433 32499237 33209119 33709039
34058992 34368899 33988849 33318850 32378864 31678911
30968963 30339017 30149188 29779425 29459497 29429547
29519573 29659581
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
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