797
ACUS48 KWNS 050850
SWOD48
SPC AC 050848
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0348 AM CDT SUN APR 05 2026
VALID 081200Z - 131200Z
..DISCUSSION
..WEDNESDAY/DAY 4 AND THURSDAY/DAY 5
FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM
THE HIGH PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES, AS A LARGE AREA OF SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE
OF THIS FEATURE ON THURSDAY, LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION IS
FORECAST FROM THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE LOWER TO MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WITHIN THIS RETURNING AIRMASS, ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS WOULD BE ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS, AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET RAMPS UP IN THE EVENING.
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS CONCERNING THE MAGNITUDE OF ANY POTENTIAL SEVERE
THREAT.
..FRIDAY/DAY 6 TO SUNDAY/DAY 8
MOISTURE ADVECTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON FRIDAY OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ARK-LA-TEX, AS SURFACE DEWPOINTS INCREASE INTO
THE 60S F. A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL IN THE
CENTRAL PLAINS, WHICH WOULD BE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ON FRIDAY ALONG AND
TO THE EAST OF A DRYLINE IN THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. AN ISOLATED
SEVERE THREAT WOULD BE POSSIBLE IN AREAS THAT SUFFICIENTLY
DESTABILIZE. THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS, AS AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. AT THIS TIME, MODEL
SPREAD IS SUBSTANTIAL CONCERNING THE MAGNITUDE AND SPATIAL
DISTRIBUTION OF INSTABILITY. THE MODELS ALSO VARY WIDELY ON THE
TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. FOR THESE REASONS,
WILL HOLD OFF INTRODUCING A THREAT AREA UNTIL THE MODELS CAN SHOW
BETTER AGREEMENT.
..BROYLES.. 04/05/2026
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