570
ACUS11 KWNS 051617
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 051617
NCZ000-VAZ000-SCZ000-051845-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0363
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1117 AM CDT SUN APR 05 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA...EAST-CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...FAR SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 051617Z - 051845Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...SCATTERED STORMS WILL DEVELOP AFTER 18Z, WITH A FEW STRONG
WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS EXTENSIVE CLOUDS NEAR A COLD
FRONT EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL GA INTO VA, WITH ONGOING RAIN WITHIN
THAT ZONE. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, DAYTIME HEATING EXIST ACROSS MOST OF
THE EASTERN CAROLINAS AND INTO FAR SOUTHEAST VA. RECENTLY, DEEPENING
SHOWERS WERE NOTED OVER CENTRAL NC, JUST AHEAD OF THE ONGOING
PRECIPITATION PLUME.
GRADUAL DESTABILIZATION IS TAKING PLACE AS TEMPERATURES RISE THROUGH
THE UPPER 70S F AND DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE 60-64 F RANGE. CONTINUED
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ALONG THE LENGTH OF THIS DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING ZONE, AND SUBSTANTIAL THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD DEVELOP
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS GENERALLY IN THE 30-35 KT RANGE, SUGGESTING SOME
LONGEVITY TO THE LINE OF STORMS LATER TODAY. GIVEN AN EVENTUAL
LINEAR MODE WITH CONTRIBUTING OUTFLOWS AND FAVORABLE TIME OF DAY,
GUSTS INTO THE 35-50 KT RANGE WILL BE POSSIBLE.
..JEWELL/GLEASON.. 04/05/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...
LAT...LON 34157979 34737930 36637727 37167662 37187633 37037607
36797595 36337612 35287672 34687738 33987840 33677881
33527904 33537917 33727958 34157979
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
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