430
ACUS02 KWNS 071644
SWODY2
SPC AC 071642
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1142 AM CDT TUE APR 07 2026
VALID 081200Z - 091200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
KANSAS...
..SUMMARY
THUNDERSTORMS WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE IN PARTS OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING.
..KANSAS
A COMPACT UPPER TROUGH WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE
GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. AT THE SURFACE, LOW
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA WILL DEVELOP EAST/NORTHEAST
TOWARD JAMES BAY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. A TRAILING COLD FRONT
WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST.
GULF MOISTURE RETURN WILL REMAIN MUTED GIVEN PERSISTENT HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE EAST AND PRIOR COLD FRONTAL INTRUSIONS INTO THE
GULF. AS A RESULT, SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 40S AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. NEVERTHELESS, COOL
TEMPERATURES ALOFT (AROUND -18 TO -16 C AT 500 MB) WILL SUPPORT A
PLUME OF STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL AID
IN WEAK DESTABILIZATION IN A NARROW CORRIDOR NEAR THE FRONT DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOW-LEVEL FLOW THROUGH AT LEAST 700
MB WILL REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK (LESS THAN 20 KT), BUT VERTICALLY VEERING
WIND PROFILES WITH STRONGER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
SUPERCELL WIND PROFILES AND 30+ KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL KS. WHILE INSTABILITY WILL BE THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR FOR A
MORE ROBUST SEVERE RISK, ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
ANY STRONGER UPDRAFTS THAT CAN BE MAINTAINED. ADDITIONALLY, A WELL
MIXED BOUNDARY-LAYER WITH INVERTED-V SUB-CLOUD LAYER THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILES ARE EVIDENT IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS. WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL
TEMPER THE DAMAGING WIND RISK, BUT LOCALLY STRONG GUSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE.
..LEITMAN.. 04/07/2026
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