563
FNUS22 KWNS 081943
FWDDY2
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0242 PM CDT WED APR 08 2026
VALID 091200Z - 101200Z
..AFTERNOON UPDATE
THE ELEVATED RISK AREA WAS EXPANDED SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD TO ACCOUNT
FOR AN EXPECTED OVERLAP OF SOUTHWESTERLY ~15 MPH WINDS AND RH OF
10-20 PERCENT ATOP DRY FUELS. PASSING HIGH CLOUDS IN THE MORNING
WITH INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON MAY DAMPEN THE
OVERALL FIRE ENVIRONMENT TO SOME EXTENT. HOWEVER, ANY AFTERNOON
STORMS THAT MANAGE TO DEVELOP (ESPECIALLY NEAR THE MOISTURE
GRADIENT) COULD PRODUCE ERRATIC DOWNBURST WINDS. GIVEN THE DRY
SUB-CLOUD LAYER, LOW PWATS, AND 50-150 J/KG MUCAPE, A FEW LIGHTNING
IGNITIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. WITH THE VERY ISOLATED NATURE OF
STORM DEVELOPMENT AND POTENTIAL FOR WETTING RAINFALL INTO DAY
3/FRIDAY, DRY THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN WITHHELD. SEE THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR MORE INFORMATION.
ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST, DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS MAY PROMOTE
LOCALLY ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. RH OF 25-35 PERCENT COMBINED
WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 10-15 MPH ARE EXPECTED, THOUGH QUESTIONABLE
FUELS PRECLUDE ANY INTRODUCTION OF ELEVATED HIGHLIGHTS. HOWEVER,
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT FIRE SPREAD WITHIN POCKETS OF DRIER
FINE FUELS.
..ELIZALDE-GARCIA/STEARNS.. 04/08/2026
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 0217 AM CDT WED APR 08 2026/
..SYNOPSIS
LARGELY ZONAL FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE ROCKIES ON
D2/THURSDAY AS A CLOSED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE CALIFORNIA
COASTLINE AND A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATES THROUGH THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION. AT THE SURFACE, WEAK LOW PRESSURE
CENTER IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO, WITH A
TRAILING DRYLINE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
AND A COLD FRONT EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT
PLAINS.
..PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE FORECAST TO FALL TO 10-20% ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AMID PEAK
MIXING. LATEST HIGH-RES GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS THAT A TIGHTENED
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL FAVOR SUSTAINED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS AROUND 15 MPH ACROSS THIS REGION. WITH DRY, RECEPTIVE FUELS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION, THIS COMBINATION OF WINDS/RH IS EXPECTED TO
PROMOTE A FEW HOURS OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO, EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO,
THE WESTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE, AND THE NORTHWESTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE.
INCREASED MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ATOP DEEP, DRY BOUNDARY LAYERS
(FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST BOUNDARY LAYERS MAY EXTEND UP TO ~500 MB
OR 3-4 KM AGL), MAY ALSO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED,
HIGH-BASED CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION. WITH PWATS ON THE ORDER OF
HALF AN INCH OR LESS, LITTLE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED, BUT
OUTFLOW/WIND GUSTS FROM THIS CONVECTION MAY LOCALLY AUGMENT SURFACE
WINDS SPEEDS. WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING THE PRESENCE OF
50-100 J/KG MUCAPE ATOP THE BOUNDARY LAYER, AN OCCASIONAL DRY
LIGHTNING STRIKE MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THIS AREA. CONFIDENCE
IN THE COVERAGE OF POTENTIAL DRY THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS LOW AT THIS
TIME, BUT TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR FUTURE OUTLOOK ISSUANCES.
..PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN/SOUTHWEST
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 10-20 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO OVERLAP LOW RH OF
15-20% ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AND SOUTHWEST.
THESE FACTORS MAY GENERATE LOCALLY ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON; HOWEVER, RECENT COOLER WEATHER, PRECIPITATION,
AND RESULTANT MARGINAL FUELS ARE EXPECTED TO TEMPER WIDESPREAD FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
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