218
ACUS02 KWNS 091724
SWODY2
SPC AC 091722
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1222 PM CDT THU APR 09 2026
VALID 101200Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN A NARROW
CORRIDOR FROM NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO EASTWARD TOWARD THE OZARKS...
..SUMMARY
THUNDERSTORMS WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE GUSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS
EASTWARD INTO THE OZARKS. A COUPLE STRONG STORMS MAY OCCUR LATE FROM
NORTHERN NEVADA INTO SOUTHWEST IDAHO.
..SYNOPSIS
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL PROGRESS FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE
NORTHEAST, WITH TEMPORARY RIDGING ACROSS THE PLAINS. TO THE WEST, A
LARGE-SCALE UPPER TROUGH WILL DEVELOP, WITH A LEAD WAVE MOVING INTO
THE GREAT BASIN OVERNIGHT WHILE A DEEPER UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTH OFF
THE WEST COAST. DESPITE THE RIDGING OVER THE PLAINS, MIDLEVEL
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY COOL WITH AROUND -14 C OVER KS.
AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES, WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST AND INTO THE OH VALLEY. FARTHER WEST, THIS FRONT WILL
DECELERATE FROM SOUTHERN MO INTO NORTHERN OK, AND BECOME A WARM
FRONT OVERNIGHT INTO SOUTHERN KS. ELSEWHERE, A SURFACE TROUGH WILL
DEVELOP FROM ID INTO NV AS HEIGHT FALLS OCCUR LATE.
..FROM NORTHEAST NM EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN KS AND NORTHERN OK
SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY BE ONGOING FRIDAY MORNING FROM SOUTHEAST KS
INTO NORTHERN OK, SOUTHWEST MO AND INTO NORTHWEST AR, WITH PERHAPS
SOME STRONG GUST POTENTIAL. THIS ACTIVITY MAY WEAKEN DURING THE DAY.
TO THE WEST, STRONG HEATING WILL OCCUR SOUTH OF THE MAIN BOUNDARY,
WITH 50 F TO NEAR 60 F DEWPOINTS RESULTING IN 1000-1500 J/KG MUCAPE.
BACKED SURFACE WINDS NEAR THE BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY AID STORM
DEVELOPMENT INTO NORTHEAST NM LATE IN THE AFTERNOON, WITH ACTIVITY
MOVING INTO THE OK/TX PANHANDLES DURING THE EVENING. ACTIVITY WILL
BE SLOW MOVING, WITH LOCALIZED HAIL OR WIND POTENTIAL.
..NORTHWEST NV INTO SOUTHWEST ID
STRONG HEATING BENEATH COOL MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN
STEEP LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE REGION AS THE UPPER TROUGH GRADUALLY
APPROACHES. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE WEAK DURING THE DAY BUT WILL
INCREASE TO 35-40 KT BY EVENING AS HEIGHT FALLS ARRIVE. GIVEN THE
LATER INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND MARGINAL COMBINATION OF
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY, WILL MAINTAIN NO SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT THIS
TIME. HOWEVER, A CELL OR TWO COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY STRONG GUSTS OR
SMALL/MARGINAL HAIL INTO THE EVENING.
..JEWELL.. 04/09/2026
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