071
ACUS11 KWNS 091904
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 091904
CAZ000-ORZ000-092100-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0368
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0204 PM CDT THU APR 09 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO SOUTHWEST
OREGON
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 091904Z - 092100Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
SUMMARY...ISOLATED SEVERE GUSTS AND SMALL TO MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL
WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. LIMITED STORM COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE A WATCH.
DISCUSSION...AS AN UPPER LOW APPROACHES THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST, AN INCREASE OF MID-LEVEL ASCENT HAS LED TO DEEPENING
CONVECTION WITHIN THE TERRAIN. DEEP-LAYER SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS
MAINTAINED MOISTURE IN THE REGION AND DEWPOINTS HAVE HELD IN THE
LOW/MID 50S F IN SOME AREAS. WHERE THE GREATEST HEATING CAN OCCUR
(I.E., TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE LOW/MID 60S), MLCAPE OF
500-750 J/KG CAN BE EXPECTED. A FEW STRONGER CORES HAVE ALREADY
PULSED UP AND DOWN IN INTENSITY. THE EXPECTATION IS FOR ADDITIONAL
STORMS, A COUPLE STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE, TO FORM IN THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. WEAKER EFFECTIVE SHEAR (25-30 KTS) WILL LIKELY LIMIT
THE OVERALL SEVERITY OF STORMS, HOWEVER.
..WENDT/GLEASON.. 04/09/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...MFR...STO...PQR...EKA...
LAT...LON 39652334 41852430 43252389 43652296 43602242 43272223
42862246 42302297 41412284 40892274 40202270 39812285
39652334
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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