893
ACUS11 KWNS 092123
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 092122
OKZ000-TXZ000-KSZ000-NMZ000-092315-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0369
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0422 PM CDT THU APR 09 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF FAR EASTERN NEW MEXICO...THE TEXAS AND
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES...INTO FAR SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 092122Z - 092315Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
SUMMARY...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED HIGH-BASED CONVECTION MAY
POSE A RISK FOR A STRONG TO SEVERE GUST THIS EVENING. SEVERE
COVERAGE SHOULD BE LOW AND A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
DISCUSSION...AS OF 2120 UTC, REGIONAL RADAR AND VISIBLE IMAGERY
SHOWED ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED HIGH-BASED CONVECTION DEVELOPING
ALONG A SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGH/WEAK DRYLINE OVER PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. AMPLE DIURNAL HEATING HAS STEEPENED LOW-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES SUFFICIENT FOR WEAK DESTABILIZATION AMID LIMITED
BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE (30S AND 40S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS). THIS IS
PROMOTING DEEP INVERTED-V THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES BENEATH THE
BUOYANCY. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS WEAK (GENERALLY LESS THAN 20 KT)
SUGGESTING STORM ORGANIZATION AND LONGEVITY WILL BE RATHER LIMITED.
HOWEVER, THE DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY
PROMOTE STRONG DOWNDRAFT ACCELERATIONS. SPORADIC SEVERE GUSTS (55-70
MPH RANGE) ARE POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED WITH DRY MICROBURSTS IN THE
STRONGER CORES THAT CAN DEVELOP. GIVEN THE RELATIVELY LIMITED
SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL RISK, A WW IS UNLIKELY.
..LYONS/SMITH.. 04/09/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...DDC...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...
LAT...LON 33870359 35320307 36190276 37040150 37250096 37000073
36370082 35420125 34550177 34010228 33700268 33490300
33470332 33870359
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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