017
ACUS11 KWNS 092338
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 092338
KSZ000-OKZ000-100115-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0371
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0638 PM CDT THU APR 09 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 98...
VALID 092338Z - 100115Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 98
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A RISK FOR
SEVERE HAZARDS ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH 98 OVER THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS. SEVERE WIND GUSTS ARE
THE PRIMARY THREAT, WITH LARGE HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE IN CENTRAL KANSAS.
DISCUSSION...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG/AHEAD OF A DRYLINE ANALYZED JUST WEST/NORTHWEST OF
DODGE CITY, KANSAS. LATEST MESOANALYSIS DEPICTS SURFACE TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOW-80S F WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S, WHICH IS
CONTRIBUTING TO A DEEP, WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE REGION.
HIGH LCLS (~3 KM AGL), DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYERS WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES, AND DCAPE EXCEEDING 1000 J/KG WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WIND GUSTS TO 55-60 KTS, ESPECIALLY WITH
ANY STRONGER STORM CLUSTERS THAT CAN BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES (8-9 C/KM PER LATEST MESOANALYSIS) AND
SUPERCELL WIND PROFILES (EVIDENT IN THE DDC VAD PROFILES) WILL ALSO
SUPPORT A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL WITH STRONGER, MORE SUSTAINED
CONVECTION. A GRADUAL INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL STABILIZATION OWING TO
NOCTURNAL COOLING IS THEN EXPECTED TO YIELD A DECREASING SEVERE
THREAT AFTER THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS.
..CHALMERS.. 04/09/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...
LAT...LON 38389768 37869819 37389869 37059932 36999969 37030033
37450052 37960006 38599948 38919906 39009863 39019841
38999793 38839759 38389768
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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