404
ACUS11 KWNS 100143
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 100142
MOZ000-KSZ000-100345-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0372
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0842 PM CDT THU APR 09 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST KANSAS
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 98...
VALID 100142Z - 100345Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 98
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WINDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING LATER THIS EVENING.
DISCUSSION...A TRANSITION FROM SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS TO
CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS IS EVIDENT ACROSS NORTHERN KS IN REGIONAL RADAR
IMAGERY. MRMS DATA SHOWS VERTICALLY INTEGRATED ICE STEADILY
DECLINING WHILE VELOCITY DATA FROM KTWS DEPICTS A RECENT SURGE IN
OUTFLOW FROM THE LEADING SUPERCELLS. DOWNSTREAM VWP OBSERVATIONS
SHOW A STEADY INCREASE IN 0-2 KM WINDS OVER THE PAST HOUR AS THE
NOCTURNAL JET BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN. THIS HINTS AT INCREASING
ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS NORTHEAST
KS, WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT AN UPTICK IN THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IN THE COMING HOURS. WHILE SEVERE HAIL WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE IN THE SHORT TERM, A TRANSITION TO PRIMARILY A SEVERE WIND
THREAT IS ANTICIPATED AS THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND COLD POOL
AMALGAMATION INCREASES - ESPECIALLY DOWNSTREAM FROM THE MOST
ORGANIZED CLUSTER EMERGING OVER NORTHERN RILEY/NORTHWEST
POTTAWATOMIE COUNTIES. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY SPREAD
EAST/SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR TOWARDS THE
KS/MO BORDER. EAST AND SOUTH OF HERE, DRIER LOW-LEVEL CONDITIONS AND
MORE MEAGER BUOYANCY WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE SEVERE THREAT HEADING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND MITIGATE THE NEED FOR FURTHER WATCHES.
..MOORE.. 04/10/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP...
LAT...LON 39469738 39589711 39809668 39859648 39879617 39789506
39509498 39289513 38839586 38799617 38819643 39249743
39369749 39469738
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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