302
ACUS02 KWNS 101732
SWODY2
SPC AC 101730
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 PM CDT FRI APR 10 2026
VALID 111200Z - 121200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
..SUMMARY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS ON
SATURDAY.
..SYNOPSIS
A MID-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE DAY
ON SATURDAY WITH A STRONG MID-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING THE
CALIFORNIA COAST. IN BETWEEN THESE 2 FEATURES, A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE GREAT BASIN TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. LEE
SURFACE TROUGHING WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE. THE RESULTING
STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING MOISTURE NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE PLAINS.
..SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
MODERATE INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON
ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO. WEAK INHIBITION
SHOULD ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY EARLY TO
MID-AFTERNOON. RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR, ESPECIALLY EARLY ON WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN SOMEWHAT NEBULOUS ORGANIZATION AND STORM MERGERS
WHICH MAY PRECLUDE INDIVIDUAL UPDRAFT LONGEVITY/STRENGTH. HOWEVER,
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONGEAL BY LATE AFTERNOON AND MAY RESULT IN
SOME MORE ORGANIZED WIND THREAT, SUPPORTED INTO THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD, AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS.
..CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ARE EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE CENTRAL PLAINS
THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. AS THIS OCCURS, ISOLATED TO POTENTIALLY
SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND NEAR THE DIFFUSE DRYLINE.
SHEAR WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT WEAK ACROSS THIS REGION AND THEREFORE,
SOME HAIL/WIND THREAT IS POSSIBLE, BUT A GREATER THREAT IS NOT
ANTICIPATED. GUIDANCE SHOWS A SMALL JET-STREAK EJECTING ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. THIS MAY PROVIDE A SLIGHTLY
MORE FAVORABLE ZONE OF SHEAR ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW AN
UNCAPPED ENVIRONMENT, BUT WITHOUT AN INITIATING BOUNDARY, STORM
DEVELOPMENT REMAINS UNCERTAIN. ANY MESOSCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS MID-LEVEL JET STREAK COULD RESULT IN AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING, BUT THIS SCENARIO REMAINS CONDITIONAL.
..IOWA INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA
AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS SATURDAY NIGHT, ISENTROPIC ASCENT
WILL INCREASE AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST. SOME 12Z CAM GUIDANCE HAS HINTED AT SOME ADDITIONAL
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA
IN THE WAKE OF THE PRIMARY ZONE OF ASCENT. THIS IS LIKELY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SAME JET STREAK MOVING ACROSS KANSAS DURING THE DAY. IF
STORMS DEVELOP WITHIN THIS ZONE, FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT SOME
LARGE HAIL THREAT. THEREFORE, THE MARGINAL RISK HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO
COVER THIS THREAT.
..CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL APPROACH THE CALIFORNIA
COAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW RELATIVELY WEAK
INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THIS LINE (100 TO 200 J/KG MLCAPE). HOWEVER, 40
KNOTS OF FLOW IN THE LOWEST 1KM MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO MIX DOWN SOME
OF THESE STRONGER WINDS AND RESULT IN SOME SEVERE WIND THREAT
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
..GREAT BASIN VICINITY
GIVEN THE WELL-MIXED, STEEP LAPSE-RATE ENVIRONMENT A FEW OF THE
STORMS WHICH DEVELOP ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN VICINITY COULD HAVE SOME
STRONG WIND GUSTS. RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY MAY KEEP THESE
STRONGER GUSTS SOMEWHAT SPORADIC. THEREFORE, A MARGINAL RISK WILL
NOT BE INTRODUCED AT THIS TIME.
..BENTLEY.. 04/10/2026
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page