709
ACUS11 KWNS 101928
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101928
OKZ000-102200-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0374
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0228 PM CDT FRI APR 10 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NORTHWEST/WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 101928Z - 102200Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...INTENSIFYING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS PROBABLE
SOUTHWEST THROUGH WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE ENID OK VICINITY THROUGH 3-5
PM CDT, WITH STRONGER STORMS POSING A RISK FOR SMALL TO MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL AND LOCALIZED STRONG WIND GUSTS.
DISCUSSION...INSOLATION APPEARS TO HAVE CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE
BOUNDARY-LAYER DESTABILIZATION (INCLUDING CAPE UP TO 2000 J/KG)
ALONG THE WESTERN FLANK OF STALLED/SLOW MOVING CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW TO
THE NORTH THROUGH WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE GREATER OKLAHOMA CITY AREA.
AS DESTABILIZATION CONTINUES, AND MID-LEVEL INHIBITION ERODES,
DEEPENING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS UNDERWAY IN A CORRIDOR SOUTHWEST
OF ENID INTO AREAS NEAR/SOUTH OF GAGE OK. FURTHER INTENSIFICATION
INTO INCREASING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS PROBABLE THROUGH
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS, PERHAPS AIDED BY FORCING FOR ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION.
VERTICAL SHEAR ACROSS THIS REGION WILL REMAIN QUITE WEAK, IN THE
PRESENCE OF WESTERLY DEEP-LAYER MEAN FLOW ON THE ORDER OF 10-15 KT.
HOWEVER, THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES MAY BE COOL ENOUGH, WITH MODESTLY
STEEP LOWER/MID-TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES, TO SUPPORT SMALL TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL IN OCCASIONAL STRONGER UPDRAFT PULSES. A
COUPLE OF STRONG DOWNBURSTS ALSO APPEAR POSSIBLE, BUT THE EVOLUTION
OF A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX WITH CONSOLIDATING, SUSTAINED
VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED TO SUPPORT
A MORE APPRECIABLE RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. POTENTIAL FOR THIS
CURRENTLY SEEMS LOW, BUT PERHAPS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
..KERR/MOSIER.. 04/10/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...OUN...
LAT...LON 36259966 36289847 36059718 35719714 35359739 35539862
35789968 36259966
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page