048
ACUS01 KWNS 110123
SWODY1
SPC AC 110121
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0821 PM CDT FRI APR 10 2026
VALID 110100Z - 111200Z
..NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
CORRECTED FOR THUNDER LINE ORIENTATION
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE
EVENING HOURS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT BASIN;
HOWEVER, THE OVERALL SEVERE RISK APPEARS LIMITED.
..SOUTHERN PLAINS
LATEST MRMS IMAGERY DEPICTS STEADY WEAKENING OF CONVECTION ACROSS
NORTHEAST NM AND ACROSS NORTHERN OK WITH THE ONSET OF NOCTURNAL
COOLING AND EXPANDING CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS. WHILE A COUPLE OF
STRONGER STORMS ARE NOTED ACROSS FAR EASTERN NM AND SOUTHWEST TX,
WEAK DEEP-LAYER WIND SHEAR AND DIMINISHING BUOYANCY SHOULD FAVOR A
WEAKENING TREND HEADING INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS.
ADDITIONAL ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED WELL NORTH OF THE
STALLED SURFACE BOUNDARY ALONG THE OK/KS BORDER WITH RECENT CAM
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST KS AFTER 03 UTC. THE RECENT 00Z DDC RAOB
LIKELY SAMPLED THE ENVIRONMENT THIS CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP IN, AND
HINTS THAT AT LEAST A SMALL HAIL THREAT MAY MATERIALIZE WITH
INITIALLY DISCRETE CELLS PRIOR TO UPSCALE GROWTH WITHIN THE FIRST
COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER INITIATION.
..GREAT BASIN
SIMILAR TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, CONVECTIVE TRENDS HAVE LARGELY SHOWN
SIGNS OF WEAKENING OVER THE PAST HOUR ACROSS CENTRAL TO NORTHERN NV
WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE QUICKLY COOLING INTO THE 60S. THE
COMBINATION OF RAIN-COOLED AIR/OUTFLOWS AND THE ONSET OF NOCTURNAL
COOLING SHOULD FURTHER REDUCE ANY REMAINING MIXED-LAYER BUOYANCY
(WHICH WAS ALREADY FAIRLY MARGINAL PER REGIONAL 00Z RAOBS).
CONSEQUENTLY, THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT NO LONGER APPEARS
SUPPORTIVE OF INTENSE CONVECTION, THOUGH A STRONG STORM OR TWO MAY
PERSIST FOR THE NEXT HOUR AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO
STABILIZE.
..MOORE.. 04/11/2026
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