780
ACUS02 KWNS 110538
SWODY2
SPC AC 110537
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1237 AM CDT SAT APR 11 2026
VALID 121200Z - 131200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST ON SUNDAY.
..SYNOPSIS
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY PIVOT EAST OVER THE WESTERN U.S. ON
SUNDAY WHILE UPPER RIDING ENVELOPES THE EAST. A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE
IMPULSES WILL MIGRATE NORTHEAST FROM THE PLAINS TO THE UPPER
MIDWEST/MS VALLEY VICINITY. PERSISTENT MIDLEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTIONS WILL MAINTAIN LEE TROUGHING OVER THE
PLAINS. MEANWHILE, SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL TRANSPORT 60S F
DEWPOINTS NORTHWARD FROM TX TO WI AHEAD OF A SURFACE TROUGH/DRYLINE
ORIENTED ACROSS EASTERN NE INTO CENTRAL KS, ARCING SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
INTO NORTHWEST OK AND WESTERN TX. A SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST, WHERE A BOUNDARY WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS
SOUTHERN MN INTO WI.
..CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE ONGOING SUNDAY
MORNING ACROSS OK/TX, WITH MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY POSSIBLE NORTHWARD
INTO THE MID-MO VALLEY. THIS CONVECTION WILL HAVE IMPLICATIONS ON
AIRMASS RECOVERY AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE DRYLINE
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. SOME ISOLATED WIND/HAIL RISK COULD
ACCOMPANY THIS EARLY ACTIVITY AS CLUSTERS AND/OR LINE SEGMENTS MOVE
ACROSS OK/TX DURING THE MORNING.
IN THE WAKE OF THIS MORNING ACTIVITY, PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY
MID/UPPER FLOW WILL MAINTAIN A PLUME OF STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND MIXING NEAR THE DRYLINE SHOULD ERODE CLOUD COVER OVER PORTIONS
OF KS/OK/WESTERN TX. LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL REMAIN NEBULOUS, WITH A
LACK OF HEIGHT FALLS PRECLUDING LARGE-SCALE SUPPORT FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. NEVERTHELESS, MODEST CONFLUENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE IS
FORECAST. MID 60S F DEWPOINTS BENEATH STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT
UP TO 2500 J/KG MLCAPE. FURTHERMORE, SUPERCELL WIND PROFILES ARE
APPARENT IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS. THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL CONDITIONALLY
SUPPORT SUPERCELLS ALONG THE DRYLINE BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. HOWEVER, GIVEN A LACK OF FORCING, STORM COVERAGE IS
UNCERTAIN. IF STORMS CAN DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE, AT LEAST A
NARROW CORRIDOR OF LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL WILL EXIST IN
ADDITION TO DAMAGING WINDS AND A TORNADO OR TWO.
SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MORNING CONVECTION COULD INTENSIFY OR
REDEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH/CENTRAL TX TOWARD THE ARKLATEX,
BUT THIS SCENARIO REMAINS VERY UNCERTAIN.
..SOUTH TEXAS/RIO GRANDE VICINITY
A CONDITIONAL SEVERE RISK IS APPARENT DURING THE EVENING/NIGHTTIME
HOURS. A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE, THOUGH
DEEP-LAYER FLOW WILL BE SOMEWHAT WEAKER COMPARED TO FURTHER NORTH.
NEVERTHELESS, SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SUPERCELLS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
MEXICO AND COULD APPROACH/CROSS THE RIO GRANDE DURING THE EVENING.
IF THIS OCCURS, AN INITIAL RISK FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS
WILL EXIST. WITH TIME, SOME POTENTIAL FOR CLUSTERING COULD OCCUR AND
BRING A CONTINUED RISK FOR STRONG WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHERN TX DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS.
..UPPER MIDWEST
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING PEAK HEATING IS UNCERTAIN. IF THE
UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TOO EARLY, CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT MAY BE LIMITED IN THE WAKE OF THAT FEATURE.
NEVERTHELESS, A CORRIDOR OF MODEST DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED AHEAD
OF THE SURFACE LOW AS COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT SUPPORT STEEPENED
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AMID A MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER. IF STORMS
DEVELOP, ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL AND WIND ARE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER
STORMS.
..LEITMAN.. 04/11/2026
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