853
FNUS22 KWNS 111946
FWDDY2
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0246 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2026
VALID 121200Z - 131200Z
..SOUTHWEST AND FOUR CORNERS
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN
PERIPHERY OF A CLOSED UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHERN CA WILL
OVERSPREAD THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND FOUR CORNERS SUNDAY. DRY AND
WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT SOUTHWEST SURFACE
WINDS OF 15-20 MPH AMID 15-20% AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY ACROSS
MUCH OF EASTERN UT THE FOUR CORNERS AND INTO THE LOWLAND DESERTS OF
SOUTHEASTERN AZ AND SOUTHWESTERN NM. BRIEF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS INCLUDING SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS AND
RH OF AROUND 10% ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN AZ WHERE FUELS ARE
STILL MARGINALLY RECEPTIVE.
..CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE COLORADO PLATEAU, LEE
SURFACE TROUGHING ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND MINIMAL
RAINFALL FROM CONVECTION THROUGH TONIGHT WILL SUPPORT A FAVORABLE
DRY, DOWNSLOPE REGIME FOR SUNDAY ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF CO AND
WY. ELEVATED HIGHLIGHTS WERE EXTENDED WESTWARD ALONG THE CO FRONT
RANGE WHERE LOCALLY CRITICAL BUT BRIEF FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
INCLUDING SOUTHWEST WINDS OF AROUND 20 MPH AND RH REDUCTIONS TO 10%
ARE POSSIBLE IN FAVORED TERRAIN GAPS. FARTHER NORTH, A DEPARTING
SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL ENHANCE WESTERLY WINDS
ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN SD AND WESTERN NE WHERE WEST WINDS OF 10-20 MPH,
RH FALLING TO BETWEEN 15-20% AND DRY FUELS SHOULD ALIGN RESULTING IN
AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
..SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND SURFACE LEE TROUGHING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS SHOULD SUPPORT DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS
MUCH OF EASTERN NM SUNDAY. HOWEVER, SOME RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS
NM TONIGHT, WHICH COULD MITIGATE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE
D2/SUNDAY PERIOD. HOWEVER, AN EXTENSION OF ELEVATED HIGHLIGHTS MAY
BE WARRANTED IN SUBSEQUENT FORECAST UPDATES IF RAINFALL EXTENT AND
DURATION IS MINIMAL.
..OHIO RIVER VALLEY/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY ACROSS THE OH
RIVER AND MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEYS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES
EASTWARD OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THE DRY RETURN FLOW PATTERN
SHOULD YIELD SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15 MPH COUPLED WITH A DRY
BOUNDARY LAYER SUPPORTIVE OF MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY OF 25-35% BY
MID-AFTERNOON. EXCEPTIONALLY DRY FUELS WITH ERC VALUES IN THE 95TH
TO 99TH PERCENTILES AMID ONGOING DROUGHT COMBINED WITH THE DRY AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PROMOTE AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT FOR
MUCH OF THE OH RIVER VALLEY. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE WARRANTS AN
EXPANSION OF ELEVATED HIGHLIGHTS INTO THE MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEY AND
NORTHERN MS/AL AREA.
..WILLIAMS.. 04/11/2026
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 0139 AM CDT SAT APR 11 2026/
..SYNOPSIS
A MID-LEVEL CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST TO PROGRESS FROM THE NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA COAST INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST, WITH BROAD
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVERSPREADING THE FOUR CORNERS INTO THE
GREAT PLAINS ON SUNDAY. WIDESPREAD DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED, RESULTING IN SEVERAL AREAS OF ELEVATED FIRE-WEATHER
HIGHLIGHTS.
..FOUR CORNERS/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
WHILE REPRESENTED BY SEPARATE ELEVATED HIGHLIGHTS, MUCH OF THE AREA
FROM SOUTHERN ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO INTO EASTERN COLORADO/WYOMING AND
PORTIONS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA WILL
EXPERIENCE WIDESPREAD DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS. THOUGH FUELS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO ARE MORE MARGINALLY RECEPTIVE TO
IGNITION AND SPREAD, WINDS OF 15-20 MPH AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY AS LOW
AS 10% WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST ELEVATED WILDFIRE CONCERNS. FURTHER
EAST INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS, FUELS ARE LARGELY AT OR EXCEEDING
THE 98TH ANNUAL ERC PERCENTILES WITH WINDS FORECAST AT 15-20 MPH AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITY AT 10-15%. LOCALLY CRITICAL CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR
ACROSS AREAS JUST EAST OF THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES, WHERE
TOPOGRAPHY RESULTS IN AN ENHANCEMENT OF THE SURFACE WINDS, OR
PERHAPS WHERE A STRONGER DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT OF THE WINDS DEVELOP.
HOWEVER, UNCERTAINTY IN THE DURATION AND MAGNITUDE OF CRITICAL WINDS
PRECLUDES HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME. WHILE METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS
WILL REACH ELEVATED STATUS IN THE GAP BETWEEN THESE AREAS, RECENT
WETTING RAINFALL AND LESS THAN RECEPTIVE FUELS WILL LESSEN THE
OVERALL FIRE-WEATHER CONCERNS BETWEEN THE HIGHLIGHTS.
..OHIO RIVER VALLEY
WHILE FORECAST RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE MORE VARIABLE, RANGING
FROM 25-35%, MUCH OF THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY IS EXPERIENCING
WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO SEVERE DROUGHT. FUELS AT OR EXCEEDING THE
98TH ANNUAL PERCENTILE FOR ERCS AND SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS AROUND
15 MPH WILL SUPPORT ELEVATED FIRE-WEATHER CONCERNS AMIDST DEEPLY
MIXED AND DRY BOUNDARY LAYER PROFILES. WHILE INSTANCES OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE PRECIPITATION MAY OCCUR THE PRIOR AFTERNOON/EVENING, THIS
WILL DO LITTLE TO ALLEVIATE THE OVERALL FIRE-WEATHER CONCERNS.
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
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