723
ACUS11 KWNS 112232
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 112232
KSZ000-120000-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0383
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0532 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL KS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 112232Z - 120000Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A THREAT FOR SEVERE HAIL/WIND AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO MAY
SPREAD EASTWARD. THE LONGEVITY OF THE THREAT IS UNCERTAIN.
DISCUSSION...AN HP SUPERCELL HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST OF WICHITA, WITHIN A REGION OF ASCENT THAT MAY HAVE
BEEN RELATED TO A MINOR MCV THAT EARLIER MOVED OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS. THE KICT VWP DEPICTS GRADUALLY ENLARGING LOW-LEVEL
HODOGRAPHS, WITH SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED
CONVECTION. DOWNSTREAM MLCINH IS MINIMAL, WHICH MAY HELP THIS
SUPERCELL CLUSTER TO PERSIST INTO EARLY EVENING, THOUGH IN THE
ABSENCE OF STRONGER SYNOPTIC-SCALE ASCENT, STORM-SCALE DYNAMICS AND
THE INFLUENCE OF CELL MERGERS MAY DETERMINE THE LONGEVITY OF THIS
CLUSTER AND THE ATTENDANT SEVERE THREAT.
WHILE MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT PARTICULARLY STEEP (AS OBSERVED
IN THE 17Z LMN AND 18Z DDC SOUNDINGS), MLCAPE OF AROUND 1500 J/KG
WILL SUPPORT LARGE-HAIL POTENTIAL FOR AS LONG AS THE SUPERCELL
STRUCTURE PERSISTS. SEVERE RFD AND OUTFLOW GUSTS WILL ALSO CONTINUE
TO BE POSSIBLE. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR/SRH ARE ALSO SUFFICIENT FOR SOME
TORNADO THREAT, THOUGH THE ONGOING HP STRUCTURE AND EXTENSIVE
OUTFLOW WILL TEND TO LIMIT TORNADO POTENTIAL TO SOME EXTENT.
GIVEN THE ISOLATED NATURE AND UNCERTAIN DURATION OF THE ONGOING
THREAT, THE NEED FOR WATCH ISSUANCE REMAINS UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER, IN
THE SHORT TERM, A LOCALIZED BUT POTENTIALLY SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE
THREAT MAY SPREAD ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL KS, NEAR AND NORTH OF
WICHITA.
..DEAN/THOMPSON.. 04/11/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...ICT...
LAT...LON 37989805 38129728 38099653 37639645 37559666 37489708
37519746 37589785 37989805
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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