790
ACUS01 KWNS 120058
SWODY1
SPC AC 120056
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0756 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2026
VALID 120100Z - 121200Z
..THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHERN TEXAS
..SUMMARY
SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT
ACROSS PORTIONS CENTRAL TEXAS WHILE MORE ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS
AND INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
..SYNOPSIS
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE LATE THIS EVENING AND
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL CONUS. A LEE
CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND
MAINTAIN NORTHWARD MOISTURE RETURN ACROSS THE PLAINS AS WELL AS A
FOCUSED ZONE OF STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY.
BUOYANT CONDITIONS AND MODEST, BUT ADEQUATE, DEEP-LAYER WIND SHEAR
SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION.
..TEXAS
THE EARLY STAGES OF MCV DEVELOPMENT ARE NOTED IN REGIONAL
REFLECTIVITY ACROSS THE BIG BEND REGION OF TX WHERE A CONVECTIVE
CLUSTERING HAS BEEN FOCUSED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE NEARBY
00Z DRT RAOB RECENTLY SAMPLED A 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUE ON THE ORDER
OF 45 KNOTS, WHICH IS FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION. THIS
KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND
COULD SUPPORT INTENSIFICATION/ORGANIZATION OF A CONVECTIVE LINE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MCV AS IT MIGRATES EASTWARD INTO A MORE
MOIST/BUOYANT ENVIRONMENT. THIS SCENARIO IS SUPPORTED BY RECENT CAM
GUIDANCE, AND WARRANTS MAINTAINING/EXPANDING 15% WIND PROBABILITIES
DOWNSTREAM OF THE MCV.
..OKLAHOMA INTO KANSAS
MODESTLY MOIST AND UNCAPPED CONDITIONS WERE RECENTLY SAMPLED ACROSS
NORTHERN TX AND CENTRAL OK WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES ON THE
ORDER OF 25 KNOTS. CONTINUED NORTHWARD MOISTURE ADVECTION SHOULD
MODULATE NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION, AND INCREASING ASCENT AHEAD OF THE
UPPER WAVE EMANATING OUT OF NORTHERN MEXICO MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED
STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION THROUGH THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS.
..UPPER MS VALLEY
VWPS ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND UPPER MS VALLEY ALL SHOW A STRONG
VEERING WITHIN THE LOWEST 1-2 KM AND A RECENT UPTICK IN WIND SPEED
WITHIN THIS LAYER. ADDITIONALLY, UPSTREAM RAOBS SAMPLED 7-8 C/KM
LAPSE RATES THAT SHOULD BE ADVECTING EASTWARD INTO THE REGION
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE COMBINATION OF CONTINUED ASCENT AND
INCREASING INSTABILITY SHOULD PROMOTE THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL
ELEVATED CONVECTION LATE TONIGHT WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT FOR HAIL
APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS.
..CALIFORNIA
THE 00Z OAK RAOB SAMPLED WEAK BUOYANCY WITH AROUND 150 J/KG SBCAPE.
HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES NEAR 700 MB SHOULD CONTINUE TO COOL THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER WAVE JUST OFF THE
COAST. CONTINUED ASCENT WITHIN THE LEFT-EXIT REGION OF THE ATTENDANT
UPPER JET WILL MAINTAIN THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG
THE CA COAST AND AREAS INLAND. ADDITIONALLY, 35-45 KNOT FLOW WITHIN
THE LOWEST FEW KILOMETERS WILL LIKELY BE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT. GIVEN THE EXPECTATION OF A SLIGHT INCREASE IN BUOYANCY
AND MAINTENANCE OF LOW-LEVEL FLOW, OPTED TO KEEP THE 5% WIND RISK.
..MOORE.. 04/12/2026
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