607
ACUS11 KWNS 120300
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 120300
TXZ000-120500-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0384
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1000 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...TX HILL COUNTRY AND VICINITY
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 120300Z - 120500Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...SOME UPTICK IN THE SEVERE THREAT IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT.
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING LATE THIS EVENING ACROSS
PARTS OF THE TX HILL COUNTRY AND EDWARDS PLATEAU. WITH POTENTIAL MCV
DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE ONGOING CONVECTION, AND A
MID/UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE REGION FROM
NORTHERN MEXICO, WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO
THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS AND EVENTUALLY SPREAD EASTWARD INTO A
LARGER PORTION OF CENTRAL TX.
WHILE STRONG EMBEDDED CELLS HAVE OCCASIONALLY BEEN NOTED WITHIN THE
LARGER AREA OF CONVECTION, STORMS HAVE STRUGGLED TO ATTAIN SEVERE
INTENSITY THUS FAR. THE 00Z DRT SOUNDING DEPICTED A REMNANT EML IN
THE 700-500 MB LAYER, BUT POOR LAPSE RATES BOTH BELOW AND ABOVE THIS
LAYER ARE CONSTRAINING AVAILABLE BUOYANCY, WITH MLCAPE GENERALLY IN
THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE (LOCALLY GREATER NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER). STILL, EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 30-40 KT WILL SUPPORT OCCASIONAL
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES, WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED HAIL.
STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR/SRH (AS NOTED ON THE KDFX AND KEWX
VWPS) COULD ALSO SUPPORT A BRIEF TORNADO THREAT WITH ANY PERSISTENT
SUPERCELLS.
UPSCALE GROWTH ONE OR MORE BOWING SEGMENTS, OR POSSIBLY A QLCS, WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH TIME AS STORM COVERAGE CONTINUES TO INCREASE WITHIN
THE MOIST ENVIRONMENT. THIS COULD RESULT IN AN INCREASING THREAT OF
STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE GUSTS AND PERHAPS A LINE-EMBEDDED TORNADO,
THOUGH GENERALLY WEAK LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY TEMPER THESE THREATS
TO SOME EXTENT.
THE NEED FOR WATCH ISSUANCE ACROSS THIS REGION REMAINS UNCERTAIN DUE
TO THE POTENTIALLY LIMITED MAGNITUDE OF THE THREAT, BUT TRENDS WILL
BE MONITORED FOR AN UPTICK IN ORGANIZED CONVECTION LATE TONIGHT.
..DEAN/THOMPSON.. 04/12/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...
LAT...LON 29470158 30310079 31170031 31750012 32199979 32159889
32149893 31529860 30829860 29829931 29169983 28900083
29470158
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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