177
ACUS11 KWNS 120452
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 120452
TXZ000-120615-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0385
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1152 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...EDWARDS PLATEAU INTO PARTS OF NORTH-CENTRAL TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 100...
VALID 120452Z - 120615Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 100
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE GUSTS AND A BRIEF TORNADO REMAIN
POSSIBLE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
DISCUSSION...A LOOSELY ORGANIZED QLCS HAS EVOLVED ACROSS PARTS OF
EDWARDS PLATEAU, WITH MULTIPLE EMBEDDED BOWING SEGMENTS NOTED FROM
EAST OF SAN ANGELO TO NORTH OF DEL RIO. ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES
ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS, GIVEN
FAVORABLE MOISTURE, EFFECTIVE SRH (GENERALLY IN THE 100-200 M2/S2
RANGE) AND MODERATE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. HOWEVER, THE MAGNITUDE OF THE
THREAT MAY BE TEMPERED TO SOME EXTENT BY THE MODEST BUOYANCY (MLCAPE
OF 500-1000 J/KG) AND WEAK LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE GUSTS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
PERSISTENT BOWING SEGMENTS, AND A BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT
GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. SOME SEVERE THREAT
MAY DEVELOP EAST AND NORTH OF WW 100, THOUGH THE NEED FOR LOCAL
WATCH EXPANSION OR NEW WATCH ISSUANCE WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
SHORT-TERM OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS REGARDING CONVECTIVE VIGOR AND
ORGANIZATION INTO THE EARLY MORNING.
..DEAN/THOMPSON.. 04/12/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...
LAT...LON 29490071 30430023 31449968 31789975 32669910 32999899
32919826 32249819 31539833 31339842 30409891 29319987
29180027 29190086 29490071
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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