730
ACUS48 KWNS 120841
SWOD48
SPC AC 120839
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0339 AM CDT SUN APR 12 2026
VALID 151200Z - 201200Z
..DISCUSSION
..DAY 4/WED - SOUTHERN PLAINS TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE ORIENTED OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS FEATURE WILL SHIFT EAST TO THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY THURSDAY MORNING. AS THIS OCCURS, STRONG
DEEP-LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD A MOIST AND UNSTABLE
AIRMASS FROM TX TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. SOME CONVECTION MAY BE
ONGOING WEDNESDAY MORNING, RESULTING IN SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
AIRMASS RECOVERY AND CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. HOWEVER, PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW
AHEAD OF A DRYLINE AND CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION SHOULD SUPPORT AREAS
OF AIRMASS RECOVERY. A MIX OF SUPERCELLS AND LINEAR SEGMENTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE, POSING AN ALL-HAZARDS SEVERE RISK.
..DAY 5/THU
SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD BE LOWER ON THURSDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND
WEAKENS AT IT SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM PARTS OF THE GREAT
LAKES/OHIO VALLEY INTO THE TN VALLEY, WITH MODEST INSTABILITY AND
LIMITED HEATING TEMPERING SEVERE POTENTIAL.
..DAY 6/FRI - SOUTHERN PLAINS TO UPPER MIDWEST
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT THE PAST SEVERAL
FORECAST CYCLES IN BRINGING A LARGE-SCALE UPPER EASTWARD FROM THE
ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH A
TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT, A SEASONALLY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE BENEATH
STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY DEEP-LAYER FLOW. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT A
SEVERE RISK AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
..DAYS 7-8/SAT-SUN
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE EAST OVER THE EASTERN U.S. ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. STRONGER ASCENT WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST INTO
CANADA. DEEP-LAYER FLOW PARALLEL TO THE SURFACE FRONT AND A
NARROWING WARM SECTOR SHOULD LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL.
..LEITMAN.. 04/12/2026
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page