520
ACUS11 KWNS 121920
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 121919
TXZ000-122115-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0389
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0219 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CENTRAL TEXAS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 121919Z - 122115Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A COUPLE OF SEVERE STORMS WITH POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SEVERE
HAIL MAY GRADUALLY DEVELOP THROUGH 4-6 PM CDT. IT IS NOT YET CLEAR
THAT A SEVERE WEATHER WATCH WILL BE NEEDED, BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE MONITORED FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.
DISCUSSION...BENEATH THE BELT OF 40-50 KT SOUTHWESTERLY 500 MB FLOW
OVERSPREADING CENTRAL TEXAS, DEEPENING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS
EVIDENT NEAR AND WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR, FROM THE HILL COUNTRY
NORTHWARD INTO AREAS JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE METROPLEX. FORCING FOR
ASCENT DOWNSTREAM OF A JET STREAK EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS REGIME MAY BE
AIDING DEVELOPMENT, WHICH APPEARS FOCUSED WITHIN WEAK
LOWER/MID-TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION ON THE NORTHERN/NORTHEASTERN
PERIPHERY OF A PLUME OF MORE STRONGLY CAPPING ELEVATED MIXED-LAYER
AIR.
BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE CHARACTERIZED BY SURFACE DEW POINTS NEAR 70F
APPEARS TO BE CONTRIBUTING TO CAPE IN EXCESS OF 1500 J/KG, AIDED BY
INCREASING INSOLATION IN THE WAKE OF EARLY DAY CONVECTION SPREADING
NORTHEAST AND EAST OF THE REGION. GIVEN THE STRONG DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR, IT APPEARS THAT A COUPLE OF SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL MAY DEVELOP AS SCATTERED STORMS
INITIATE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
..KERR/MOSIER.. 04/12/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...
LAT...LON 32179832 31869743 30189706 29889828 30429844 31599911
32179832
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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