820
FNUS22 KWNS 121934
FWDDY2
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0233 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2026
VALID 131200Z - 141200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND ADJACENT
HIGH PLAINS...
..CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN WYOMING
SOUTHWESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWESTERN NEBRASKA...
..APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC
A SURFACE TROUGH ACCELERATING EASTWARD INTO QUEBEC ALONG WITH AN
EVOLVING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL SUPPORT DRY,
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE APPALACHIANS AND
MID-ATLANTIC, RESULTING IN SUSTAINED SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15 MPH
MONDAY. THE LACK OF APPRECIABLE GULF MOISTURE RETURN SHOULD PROMOTE
RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE 25-35% RANGE ACROSS THE TN GREAT VALLEY
WITH RH AS LOW AS 20% ACROSS PORTIONS OF VA. INCREASING CLOUD COVER
AND ALONG WITH SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD LIMIT
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FARTHER NORTH ACROSS THE OH RIVER VALLEY.
ALTHOUGH RH WILL BE MARGINALLY HIGHER THAN D1/SUNDAY OBSERVED
VALUES, FUELS REMAIN EXTREMELY DRY AND QUITE RECEPTIVE TO WILDFIRE
SPREAD. THE EXISTING ELEVATED HIGHLIGHTS ACROSS VA WERE EXTENDED
SOUTHWESTWARD INTO EASTERN TN WITH CONVECTION LIKELY REMAINING WELL
TO THE NORTH ACROSS KY AND WV.
..CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS
A MID-LEVEL PERTURBATION EMBEDDED WITHIN BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
COUPLED WITH A LEE SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL
RESULT IN WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PLAINS. INTRODUCED CRITICAL HIGHLIGHTS FROM EASTERN WY,
SOUTHWESTERN SD AND NORTHWESTERN NE WHERE WEST WINDS OF 20-25 MPH
(LOCALLY 30 MPH) WILL ALIGN WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY OF 10-15% BY
MID-AFTERNOON AMID A DRY AND WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL ALIGN WITH DRY AND RECEPTIVE FUELS TO PROMOTE A
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERN. FARTHER SOUTH, A MID-LEVEL JET
EJECTING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS COMBINED WITH LEE TROUGHING ACROSS
HIGH PLAINS WILL SUPPORT A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT FOR THE
REGION MONDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20-25 MPH AND RH REDUCTIONS INTO
THE 10-15% RANGE ARE LIKELY TO EVOLVE BY PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING.
HOWEVER, A COMPLEX FUELS ARRANGEMENT EXISTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WITH SOME MODIFICATION AND REDUCED RECEPTIVITY NOTED FROM
RECENT RAINFALL. ALIGNMENT OF FIRE-EFFECTIVE METEOROLOGICAL
CONDITIONS AND MOST RECEPTIVE FUELS WILL EXIST ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
CO, FAR NORTHEASTERN NM, FAR SOUTHWESTERN KS AND ADJACENT OK/TX
PANHANDLES WHERE CRITICAL HIGHLIGHTS WERE LARGELY MAINTAINED.
..WILLIAMS.. 04/12/2026
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 0203 AM CDT SUN APR 12 2026/
..SYNOPSIS
BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW IN ADVANCE OF A TROUGH
PROGRESSING FROM CALIFORNIA INTO THE GREAT BASIN WILL BE RESPONSIBLE
FOR WIDESPREAD DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS FROM SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO
ALL THE WAY INTO PORTIONS OF EASTERN WYOMING AND SOUTH DAKOTA.
CRITICAL FIRE-WEATHER CONCERNS ARE FORECAST FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO INTO PORTIONS OF FAR WESTERN KANSAS AND
NORTHERN NEW MEXICO.
..EASTERN NEW MEXICO/ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS
CRITICAL FIRE-WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR SOUTHEASTERN
COLORADO INTO PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR
WESTERN KANSAS. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY OF 10-15% AND WINDS OF 25
MPH WILL OVERLAP WITH CRITICALLY RECEPTIVE FUELS. WHILE CRITICAL
METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS APPEAR THEY COULD EXTEND FURTHER SOUTH AND
WEST OF THE CURRENT AREA, RECENT WETTING RAINFALL AND A LACK OF
RECEPTIVE FUELS CURRENTLY LIMIT THE EXPANSION OF HIGHLIGHTS. STILL,
THERE ARE SOME POCKETS OF RECEPTIVE FUELS IN PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA
INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THAT HAVE YET TO RECEIVE RAIN, AND SOME
ADDITIONAL HIGHLIGHTS MAY BE WARRANTED IN FUTURE UPDATES. A
SECONDARY AREA OF CONCERN IN THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE COULD BE PORTIONS
OF NORTHERN NEBRASKA INTO SOUTH DAKOTA/WYOMING, WHERE SOME MEMBERS
HAVE COME IN WITH WINDS OF 25-30 MPH AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY OF 10-15%
OVER RECEPTIVE FUELS. HOWEVER, ENSEMBLE SPREAD IN THE SURFACE WINDS
REDUCES CONFIDENCE TO INTRODUCE THESE HIGHLIGHTS, ESPECIALLY GIVEN
THE MEMBERS WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE MODELS THAT TEND TO BIAS
TOWARDS AGGRESSIVE MIXING. STILL, THIS AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR
ADDITIONAL HIGHLIGHTS IN FUTURE UPDATES.
..MID ATLANTIC
DRY SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW IS FORECAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH
CAROLINA INTO MUCH OF VIRGINIA, WHERE FUELS CURRENTLY EXCEED THE
95TH-99TH ANNUAL PERCENTILES FOR ERCS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH
10-15 MPH WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY AROUND 25-35%, SUPPORTING ELEVATED
FIRE-WEATHER CONCERNS.
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
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