335
ACUS11 KWNS 130032
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 130032
TXZ000-130230-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0394
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0732 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TEXAS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 130032Z - 130230Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...LARGE HAIL (ISOLATED UP TO 2 INCHES) AND SEVERE WIND GUSTS
ARE POSSIBLE INTO MID EVENING WITH STORMS IN CENTRAL TEXAS. A WATCH
IS NOT ANTICIPATED GIVEN LIMITED FORCING AND STORM COVERAGE.
DISCUSSION...STORMS IN THE VICINITY OF SAN SABA AND MILLS COUNTIES
HAVE INTENSIFIED OVER THE LAST HOUR. THESE STORMS ARE FORMING ALONG
THE WESTERN EDGE OF RAIN-COOLED AIR FROM CONVECTION FARTHER EAST.
THIS EVENING'S OBSERVED SOUNDINGS FROM THE REGION INDICATE STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES (7.5-8 C/KM). WHILE MID-LEVEL WINDS WILL TEND
TO WEAKEN WITH TIME, STORMS WILL REMAIN AT LEAST PERIODICALLY
ORGANIZED INTO THE EVENING. GIVEN THE RELATIVELY STRAIGHT
HODOGRAPHS, STORM SPLITS CAN BE EXPECTED. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER (PARTICULARLY LARGE HAIL) WILL BE FROM LEFT-MOVING
CELLS. THESE STORMS WILL MAINTAIN WARM/MOIST INFLOW AS THEY MOVE
NORTH-NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE COOLER AIR. HOW LONG STORMS CAN REMAIN
STRONG TO SEVERE IS NOT CERTAIN GIVEN LACK OF LARGE-SCALE FORCING.
..WENDT/HART.. 04/13/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...
LAT...LON 31069844 30889874 30559937 30509958 30689970 30849963
31249938 31619921 32259866 32519796 32339773 31829778
31069844
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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