014
ACUS01 KWNS 130051
SWODY1
SPC AC 130049
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0749 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2026
VALID 130100Z - 131200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL TEXAS...
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TEXAS AND PERHAPS CENTRAL/WESTERN
OKLAHOMA.
..SYNOPSIS
MID-EVENING SURFACE OBSERVATIONS REVEAL AN EXPANSIVE WARM SECTOR
FROM THE TX COAST NORTHWARD INTO THE PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY.
DESPITE A HIGH-QUALITY THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT THROUGHOUT MUCH OF
THIS WARM SECTOR, A COMBINATION OF RESIDUAL CAPPING ACROSS THE UPPER
MS VALLEY AND/OR VERY WEAK ASCENT IN THE WAKE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE IS LIMITING THE OVERALL POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS
OUTSIDE OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. ACROSS THE WEST, CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
IS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AND WILL CONTINUE TO DWINDLE HEADING INTO
THE LATE EVENING HOURS AS NOCTURNAL COOLING BEGINS TO INCREASE
INHIBITION.
..SOUTHERN PLAINS
THE MOST INTENSE CONVECTION CURRENTLY RESIDES TO THE WEST OF THE
I-35 CORRIDOR IN CENTRAL TX WHERE STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED ON THE WESTERN FRINGE OF AN EXPANDING COLD POOL.
MLCAPE VALUES TO THE WEST OF THE COLD POOL WERE RECENTLY SAMPLED
NEAR 2500 J/KG BY THE DRT AND OUN SOUNDINGS WITH AROUND 30-35 KNOTS
OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR ALSO NOTED. THIS ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE
FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION, INCLUDING SPLITTING SUPERCELLS WITH SOME
POTENTIAL FOR LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL. HOWEVER, CLOSE PROXIMITY TO
THE RESIDUAL COLD POOL SHOULD LIMIT THE OVERALL SPATIAL EXTENT OF
THIS THREAT, AND MOST GUIDANCE DEPICTS THIS ACTIVITY WANING LATER
TONIGHT IN THE ABSENCE OF PERSISTENT FORCING FOR ASCENT.
FURTHER NORTH INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST TX, CONTINUED
CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT ALONG A DIFFUSE DRYLINE IS NOTED IN GOES
IMAGERY. WHILE STORM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS UNLIKELY GIVEN THE
APPROACHING ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING, THE DOWNSTREAM ENVIRONMENT
REMAINS HIGHLY FAVORABLE FOR INTENSE CONVECTION PER THE 00Z OUN
RAOB, AND RECENT RRFS SOLUTIONS HINT AT THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION
WITHIN THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS (THOUGH THESE SOLUTIONS APPEAR TO BE
OUTLIERS COMPARED TO OTHER GUIDANCE). GIVEN THIS SIGNAL AND THE
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, OPTED TO MAINTAIN 5% HAIL/WIND PROBABILITIES
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS LOW-PROBABILITY, BUT POTENTIALLY HIGH IMPACT
SCENARIO.
..MOORE.. 04/13/2026
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