675
ACUS48 KWNS 130846
SWOD48
SPC AC 130844
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0344 AM CDT MON APR 13 2026
VALID 161200Z - 211200Z
..DISCUSSION
..DAY 4/THU - MID-SOUTH VICINITY
AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP NORTHEAST FROM EASTERN OK/TX
TO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON THURSDAY. CONVECTION IS
LIKELY TO BE ONGOING FROM THE MID-MS/LOWER OH VALLEY TO THE ARKLATEX
REGION THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL LIKELY TEMPER DOWNSTREAM
DESTABILIZATION (AND OVERALL SEVERE RISK), BUT A FEW STRONG STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH VICINITY.
..DAY 5/FRI - SOUTHERN PLAINS TO IOWA
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY SHOWING AN UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE WESTERN U.S. DEVELOPING EASTWARD TOWARD THE HIGH PLAINS
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS, INCREASING DEEP-LAYER
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD A SEASONALLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE
AIRMASS. A LEE LOW WILL DEEPEN OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS, WITH A DRYLINE EXTENDING ACROSS WESTERN OK/TX DURING THE
AFTERNOON. BY EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, A COLD FRONT
WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER
MO VALLEY. THIS PATTERN WILL SUPPORT A RISK OF SEVERE STORMS ACROSS
THE WARM SECTOR FROM OK TO IA.
..DAYS 6-8/SAT-MON
SOME SEVERE RISK MAY PERSIST INTO SATURDAY AS A SURFACE LOW DEEPENS
OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND THE COLD FRONT FROM THE DAY 5/FRIDAY PERIOD
CONTINUES TO SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY,
BECOMING ORIENTED ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS BY SUNDAY MORNING. SEVERE
POTENTIAL MAY DEPEND ON HOW CONVECTION ON FRIDAY EVOLVES AND IMPACTS
THE DOWNSTREAM AIRMASS HEADING INTO SATURDAY MORNING, RESULTING IN
LOW PREDICTABILITY AT THIS TIME. STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE PLAINS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT, AND GULF
MOISTURE WILL BECOME CUT-OFF AS THE FRONT PUSHES WELL SOUTH INTO THE
GULF BASIN. THIS SHOULD BRING A REPRIEVE FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ENVELOPS MUCH
OF THE CONUS EAST OF THE ROCKIES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
..LEITMAN.. 04/13/2026
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