052
ACUS11 KWNS 131959
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131959
MNZ000-IAZ000-SDZ000-132130-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0401
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0259 PM CDT MON APR 13 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO
EXTREME NORTHERN IOWA AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY
VALID 131959Z - 132130Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THE SEVERE THREAT WILL INCREASE ALONG AND TO THE NORTH OF
A WARM FRONT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SEVERE WIND/HAIL AND AT LEAST
A FEW TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE. A COUPLE OF STRONG TORNADOES MAY
OCCUR. A TORNADO WATCH IS BEING ISSUED.
DISCUSSION...AS WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM CLOUDS ERODE IN PROXIMITY TO A
WARM FRONT, MLCINH WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE, WHICH IS ALREADY
SUPPORTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CU FIELD BETWEEN THE PRIMARY WARM
FRONT (WHERE RICHER MOISTURE IS IN PLACE ALONG THE MN/IA BORDER),
AND A DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH IN SOUTHERN MN.
OVER 2000 J/KG MLCAPE AND 50 KTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR IS IN
PLACE, WHICH WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF SEVERE
WIND AND HAIL. SEVERE HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS ALONG THE
WARM FRONT OR NEAR THE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY, WITH 2+ INCH
HAIL POSSIBLE. TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH SUPERCELLS
ANCHORING TO THE WARM FRONT. SHOULD A MORE DOMINANT, DISCRETE
SUPERCELL SUSTAIN ALONG THE WARM FRONT, STRONG TORNADOES WILL BECOME
POSSIBLE. A TORNADO WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SOON.
..SQUITIERI/HART.. 04/13/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...
LAT...LON 43929685 44459550 44789417 44819352 44659307 44239276
43749272 43409307 43269386 43309488 43409583 43489621
43619666 43929685
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page