868
ACUS03 KWNS 140723
SWODY3
SPC AC 140722
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0222 AM CDT TUE APR 14 2026
VALID 161200Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY...
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY.
..LOWER OHIO VALLEY/MIDWEST VICINITY
AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE MS VALLEY TO THE
APPALACHIANS ON THURSDAY. MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY DEEP-LAYER FLOW
WILL OVERSPREAD THE MO BOOTHEEL TOWARD LAKE ERIE AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE. AT THE SURFACE, A CORRIDOR OF UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S F
DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF A SURFACE FRONT. SOME ONGOING
CONVECTION AND CLOUDINESS EARLY IN THE DAY WILL LIMIT STRONGER
DESTABILIZATION, BUT AT LEAST WEAK MLCAPE AROUND 500-1000 J/KG IS
FORECAST. WHILE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE WEAK, AROUND 30-40 KT
WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN 850-700 MB AND 40+ KT EFFECTIVE
SHEAR MAGNITUDES WILL AID IN SOME STORM ORGANIZATION. A MIX OF
CLUSTERS AND LINE SEGMENTS WILL BRING A RISK OF LOCALLY STRONG GUSTS
WHERE STRONGER HEATING RESULTS IN STEEPENED LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
..SOUTHERN PLAINS VICINITY
A CONDITIONALLY FAVORABLE SUPERCELL ENVIRONMENT WILL BE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF A DRYLINE. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE IMPULSE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY IN THE
DAY, DEPARTING BY EARLY AFTERNOON. HEIGHT RISES/SHORTWAVE RIDGING IS
THEN FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA. AT THIS TIME, THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IS NOT FORECAST AS WEAK CAPPING IN THE ABSENCE OF
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SHOULD BE MAINTAINED. HOWEVER, TRENDS WILL BE
MONITORED GIVEN THE OTHERWISE VERY FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC AND
KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT. OTHERWISE, ISOLATED ELEVATED CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE LATE IN THE PERIOD IN A WARM ADVECTION REGIME ACROSS NORTH
TX INTO SOUTHERN OK.
..LEITMAN.. 04/14/2026
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