108
ACUS03 KWNS 141916
SWODY3
SPC AC 141915
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0215 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2026
VALID 161200Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY REGION INTO PARTS OF NEW YORK...
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY
EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEAST MISSOURI ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO
PARTS OF NEW YORK.
..SYNOPSIS
A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL PERSIST ON THURSDAY, WITH A LEADING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING QUICKLY ACROSS OH VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST.
THIS WAVE WILL BREAKDOWN THE RIDGE ALONG THE EAST COAST, AND PROVIDE
A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED STRONG STORMS. LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION OUT OF
THE WEST/SOUTHWEST WILL HELP DESTABILIZE THE REGION WITH STORMS MOST
LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKE ACROSS MUCH OF
UPSTATE NY AND NORTHERN PA. INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO
SUPPORT A FEW FAST-MOVING CELLS CAPABLE OF MARGINAL HAIL AND LOCALLY
DAMAGING GUSTS.
TO THE SOUTHEAST, STORM COVERAGE IS LESS CERTAIN, PARTICULARLY FROM
AR/MO INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY. HERE, COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL
LINGER, AIDING INSTABILITY, THOUGH SOMEWHAT BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH
AFFECTING THE NORTHEASTERN STATES. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE MOST
LIKELY IN THE MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE MAIN WAVE, BUT
CONDITIONAL SEVERE PROBABILITIES WILL BE HIGHER DURING THE AFTERNOON
WHEN INSTABILITY REDEVELOPS. ANY STORMS THAT FORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HAIL, FROM MO INTO AR, WESTERN TN/KY, IL AND IN.
..JEWELL.. 04/14/2026
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