398
ACUS11 KWNS 141954
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141953
IAZ000-NEZ000-142200-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0424
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0253 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO
EXTREME WESTERN IOWA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 141953Z - 142200Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA ALONG A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY, WITH A CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND
SEVERE WIND GUSTS WITH ANY STORM THAT CAN DEVELOP.
DISCUSSION...LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A STATIONARY BOUNDARY
EXTENDING NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS EASTERN/SOUTH-CENTRAL
NEBRASKA, WITH A SURFACE LOW ANALYZED NEAR OMA. A CORRIDOR OF HIGHER
SURFACE DEWPOINTS (LOW-TO-MID 50S F) LOCATED ALONG THE COOL SIDE OF
THIS BOUNDARY IS CONTRIBUTING TO 250-750 J/KG MLCAPE, WITH FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND MESOANALYSIS DEPICTING ERODING MLCIN AS SURFACE
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM. DESPITE ONLY WEAK AVAILABLE BUOYANCY,
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT (40+ KT AT 3 KM AGL PER THE UEX VWP)
ATOP NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY IS SUPPORTING STRONG EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 50-60 KTS.
ELONGATED HODOGRAPHS AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES (PER THE 18Z
OAX OBSERVED SOUNDING) WILL SUPPORT A CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WITH ANY STORM THAT IS ABLE TO DEVELOP, WITH
DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER PROFILES IMMEDIATELY SOUTH OF THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY (DCAPE OF 800-1000+ J/KG) ALSO SUPPORTING SOME POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG TO OCCASIONALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS. THIS CONDITIONAL
SEVERE RISK WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE WITH TIME THIS EVENING OWING TO
LOW-LEVEL NOCTURNAL COOLING/STABILIZATION. GIVEN THE EXPECTATION FOR
STORM COVERAGE AND THREAT MAGNITUDE TO REMAIN LIMITED SHOULD A STORM
EVEN DEVELOP, WATCH ISSUANCE APPEARS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.
..CHALMERS/GLEASON.. 04/14/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...
LAT...LON 40829690 40519813 40259897 40059957 40099990 40219996
40379976 40609948 40999900 41529800 41969701 41949630
41669589 41239583 41079603 40859677 40829690
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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