790
ACUS11 KWNS 150031
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 150031
MIZ000-150130-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0434
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0731 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 150031Z - 150130Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THOUGH A TRANSITION TO PRIMARILY A LINEAR STORM MODE IS
EXPECTED, ALL SEVERE HAZARDS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING IN
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. A WATCH WILL BE NEEDED SOON.
DISCUSSION...THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL SPREAD INTO PARTS OF
LOWER MICHIGAN WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THE PRIMARY AREA OF
CONCERN SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF A WARM FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER
MICHIGAN. A CLUSTER OF STORMS HAS EVOLVED OUT OF TWO SUPERCELLS IN
SOUTHEASTERN WISCONSIN AND WILL TRACK ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN. DAMAGING
WINDS WILL LIKELY BE A CONCERN WITH THIS ACTIVITY. ADDITIONAL STORMS
MAY FORM IN THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME AHEAD OF THAT LINEAR CLUSTER.
GIVEN THE STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 40 KTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR ON
THE KGRR VAD, LARGE HAIL WILL REMAIN A CONCERN WITH THE STRONGER,
DISCRETE ELEMENTS. THE RISK FOR TORNADOES IS NOT AS CLEAR GIVEN THE
LINEAR MODES EXPECTED, THOUGH THE GRR VAD ALSO SHOWS NEAR 400 M2/S2
0-3 SRH. A WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED SOON.
..WENDT/HART.. 04/15/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR...
LAT...LON 42438734 42848741 43478729 44138705 44478628 44258468
43628374 42668364 42078395 41888484 41938618 42218714
42438734
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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