074
ACUS11 KWNS 150053
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 150053
KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-150230-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0435
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0753 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHWEST TEXAS TO SOUTHERN KS
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 110...
VALID 150053Z - 150230Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 110 CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...THE STRONGER STORMS WITH WIND/HAIL ARE EXPECTED FROM
NORTHWEST TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA THROUGH 02Z, WHILE MORE
ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT COULD OCCUR ALONG THE RETREATING DRYLINE
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
DISCUSSION...WIDESPREAD CONVECTION AND RAIN-COOLED AIR, IN ADDITION
TO MESSY CONVECTIVE MODES AND STORM INTERFERENCE, HAVE LARGELY
LIMITED THE SEVERE THREAT TO OCCASIONAL SEVERE GUSTS AND ISOLATED
LARGE HAIL THIS EVENING FROM NORTHWEST TX INTO SOUTHWEST OK. THERE
WILL STILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS ALONG THE
EDGE OF THE RAIN-COOLED AIR ALONG THE I-44 CORRIDOR NEAR AND
NORTHEAST OF WICHITA FALLS THROUGH 02Z. THE 00Z OUN AND FWD
SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW WEAK CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WHICH WILL INCREASE
SLOWLY THIS EVENING WITH GRADUAL SURFACE COOLING. STILL, LINGERING
MODERATE BUOYANCY AND A MODEST INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL SHEAR THROUGH
LATE EVENING COULD SUPPORT A SUPERCELL AND CONDITIONAL TORNADO
THREAT ALONG THE RAIN-COOLED BOUNDARY. OTHERWISE, DAMAGING WINDS
AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.
THE PRESENCE OF PERSISTENT ANVIL RAIN CASTS DOUBT ON THE SHORT-TERM
SEVERE THREAT NORTH OF I-44 INTO CENTRAL OK. FARTHER NORTH, THERE
HAVE BEEN RECENT ATTEMPTS AT DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE RETREATING
DRYLINE NEAR THE OK/KS BORDER, THOUGH THE PERSISTENCE OF THIS
CONVECTION IS IN QUESTION. IF A SUSTAINED STORM DOES MANAGE TO FORM
INTO SOUTHERN KS, THE ENVIRONMENT WILL FAVOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND
A CONDITIONAL TORNADO THREAT.
..THOMPSON.. 04/15/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...
LAT...LON 34729725 34199767 33949814 33749873 33819897 34359904
34689845 35069821 35739839 37069862 37649815 38009753
37959715 37489703 36529727 35829709 35069712 34729725
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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