474
ACUS01 KWNS 150056
SWODY1
SPC AC 150054
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0754 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2026
VALID 150100Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROS PORTIONS
OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION...
..SUMMARY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST. LARGE HAIL, SEVERAL TORNADOES (SOME
STRONG), AND SWATHS OF SEVERE/DAMAGING GUSTS ARE ALL LIKELY,
PARTICULARLY FROM EASTERN IOWA INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES.
..SYNOPSIS
SCATTERED DISCRETE/SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS ARE ONGOING ACROSS
EASTERN IOWA, FAR NORTHERN ILLINOIS, AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN ALONG A
DIFFUSE WARM FRONTAL ZONE STRETCHING EASTWARD FROM WEAK SURFACE LOW
ANALYZED OVER EASTERN NE/WESTERN IA. THE PRIMARY SEVERE RISK THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS IT
SPREADS SOUTHEAST THROUGH EARLY MORNING. FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS, POORLY ORGANIZED CONVECTION CASTS
UNCERTAINTY IN THE NOCTURNAL SEVERE THREAT; HOWEVER, A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AND COULD
SUPPORT SEVERE CONVECTION.
..MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES
01 UTC REGIONAL RADAR MOSAICS SHOW SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS ONGOING
ACROSS FAR EASTERN IA, NORTHERN IL, AND SOUTHERN WI WITH THE EARLY
STAGES OF UPSCALE GROWTH EVIDENT AS STORMS INTERACTIONS INCREASE.
THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THIS
ACTIVITY PROPAGATES EAST/SOUTHEAST INTO LOWER MI AND NORTHERN IN.
THE RECENT 00Z DVN RAOB SAMPLED A CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT HIGHLY
FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION, WHICH WILL MAINTAIN THE
POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT HAIL AND TORNADOES IN THE NEAR TERM (MOST
LIKELY THROUGH 03 UTC) BEFORE A FULL TRANSITION TO A LINEAR MODE
TAKES PLACE. ONCE THIS TRANSITION OCCURS, SEVERE WINDS (INCLUDING
THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 75 MPH) AND
EMBEDDED CIRCULATIONS APPEAR PROBABLE FOR AREAS DOWNSTREAM.
..SOUTHERN IOWA INTO KANSAS
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG A SOUTHWARD SAGGING COLD FRONT IS
ANTICIPATED IN THE COMING HOURS ACROSS NORTHEAST KS INTO SOUTHERN
IA. REGIONAL SOUNDINGS SAMPLED ADEQUATE BUOYANCY AND STRONG
DEEP-LAYER WIND SHEAR (AROUND 50 KNOTS) THAT WILL LIKELY SUPPORT
ORGANIZED CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT FOR A FEW HOURS. STORM MOTIONS
ALONG THE BOUNDARY MAY FOSTER CLUSTERING/UPSCALE GROWTH, BUT A
SEVERE WIND, HAIL, AND PERHAPS TORNADO THREAT IS EXPECTED TO
MATERIALIZE THROUGH THE NIGHT.
..OKLAHOMA INTO TEXAS
CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION THUS FAR ACROSS WESTERN OK INTO NORTHWEST TX
HAS BEEN RELATIVELY LACKLUSTER GIVEN THE OTHERWISE BUOYANT AND
STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT SAMPLED BY THE 00Z OUN SOUNDING. THIS
IS LIKELY DUE TO EXPANSIVE CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS RESULTING IN
UNDERCUTTING AND CLUSTERED STORM MODES AS WELL AS THE PRESENCE OF A
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION (ALSO NOTED IN THE 00Z SOUNDING). IT REMAINS
UNCLEAR WHETHER OR NOT THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE ABLE TO RE-INTENSIFY
THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS GIVEN. HOWEVER, STRENGTHENING FLOW
FIELDS THROUGH 06 UTC MAY SUPPORT SOME DEGREE OF IMPROVED
ORGANIZATION AND A MORE ROBUST SEVERE THREAT. THIS POTENTIAL IS
HINTED BY RECENT HRRR SOLUTIONS, BUT OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS LIMITED.
BASED ON THESE TRENDS, OPTED TO REMOVE THE 30% HAIL/WIND
PROBABILITIES GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE COVERAGE. FURTHER SOUTH
INTO WESTERN TX, ATTEMPTS AT SUSTAINED CONVECTION HAVE BEEN NOTED
OVER THE PAST HOUR ALONG THE DRYLINE, BUT DOWNSTREAM INHIBITION MAY
LIMIT OVERALL STORM COVERAGE.
..MOORE.. 04/15/2026
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