405
ACUS02 KWNS 150518
SWODY2
SPC AC 150516
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1216 AM CDT WED APR 15 2026
VALID 161200Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NEW YORK AND SOUTHERN VERMONT...
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY
EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEAST MISSOURI ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO
PARTS OF NEW YORK.
..SYNOPSIS
AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST ON
THURSDAY, BECOMING ORIENTED FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TO THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY FRIDAY MORNING. AT THE SURFACE, A
FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MODEST
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL MAINTAIN UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S F
DEWPOINTS FROM THE MID-SOUTH INTO NEW YORK/SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR WEAK TO MODERATE DESTABILIZATION GIVEN
MODESTLY STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES.
.. NEW YORK VICINITY
MODEST HEIGHT FALLS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITHIN A LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME.
MODERATE TO STRONG DEEP-LAYER MID/UPPER FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE
MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER, SUPPORTING EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES OF
30+ KT. HEATING INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S WILL LEAD TO STEEPENING
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, WHILE COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT (NEAR -12 C AT
500 MB) WILL SUPPORT 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON. AN ACCOMPANYING
RISK OF ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IS EXPECTED.
..MID-SOUTH AND OHIO VALLEY
CONVECTION POSING A RISK FOR MARGINAL HAIL MAY BE GOING ACROSS PARTS
OF THE MO BOOTHEEL VICINITY THURSDAY MORNING. PERSISTENT WARM
ADVECTION SHOULD ALLOW FOR AIRMASS RECOVERY BY AFTERNOON ACROSS THIS
AREA AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO REDEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH A CONTINUED RISK FOR ISOLATED HAIL AND STRONG WIND
GUSTS. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED CONVECTION ALSO DEVELOP INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON, THOUGH THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT
MAY BE MORE MARGINAL DUE TO POSSIBLE MORNING SHOWERS AND CLOUD COVER
LINGERING, LIMITING DESTABILIZATION. HOWEVER, IF STORMS ARE ABLE TO
DEVELOP, LOCALLY STRONG GUSTS AND MARGINAL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE.
..LEITMAN.. 04/15/2026
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