532
ACUS03 KWNS 150729
SWODY3
SPC AC 150728
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0228 AM CDT WED APR 15 2026
VALID 171200Z - 181200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND EASTERN KANSAS...MISSOURI...IOWA...AND FAR
NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...
..SUMMARY
WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY VICINITY
ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. ALL SEVERE HAZARDS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
..SOUTHERN PLAINS TO MS VALLEY
A ROBUST UPPER TROUGH WILL EJECT EASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS AND CENTRAL ROCKIES TO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND CENTRAL PLAINS
ON FRIDAY. AS THIS OCCURS, STRONG DEEP-LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
OVERSPREAD PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MID/UPPER
MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES. FLOW AT 850-700 MB AROUND 40-60 KT WILL
BE COMMON. AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM NORTHERN MN
TO A LOW OVER EASTERN NE FRIDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE, A DRYLINE WILL
EXTEND SOUTHWEST FROM THE NE LOW INTO CENTRAL KS, NORTHWEST OK AND
WESTERN TX. A WARM FRONT INITIALLY ARCING ACROSS CENTRAL IA INTO
SOUTH-CENTRAL IL WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD AHEAD OF THE
EASTWARD-ADVANCING SURFACE LOW TRACKING ACROSS NORTHERN IA/SOUTHERN
MN INTO WI. A WARM SECTOR CHARACTERIZED BY MID/UPPER 60S F DEWPOINTS
WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MID-MS VALLEY BY
MIDDAY, WITH A NARROW PLUME OF LOW 60S F DEWPOINTS EXTENDING NORTH
INTO PORTIONS OF EASTERN MN AND WI. STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES (7-8
C/KM) WILL OVERSPREAD THIS MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER, RESULTING IN
MODERATE TO STRONG DESTABILIZATION.
AS STRONG ASCENT OVERSPREADS THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE BOUNDARIES
BY MID AFTERNOON, WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED.
WHILE INITIAL SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN A FAVORABLE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT AND SUPERCELL VERTICAL WIND PROFILES,
LINEAR FORCING ALONG THE FRONT COMBINED WITH STRONG DEEP-LAYER
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PARALLEL TO THE INITIATING BOUNDARY MAY RESULT IN
RAPID UPSCALE DEVELOPMENT INTO A QLCS, PARTICULARLY FROM NORTHEAST
KS/NORTHWEST MO INTO IA. A WELL-ORGANIZED LINE OF CONVECTION WILL
POSE A DAMAGING WIND RISK ALONG WITH POSSIBLE QLCS TORNADOES AS
CONVECTION DEVELOPS EASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. IF ANY
DISCRETE SUPERCELLS DEVELOP, AN ALL-HAZARDS RISK WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY
THAT ACTIVITY.
FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN KS INTO OK, SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT MAY
BE MORE PROBABLE, AT LEAST INITIALLY. CONVECTION WILL INITIALLY
DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE PRIOR TO THE COLD FRONT OVERTAKING THIS
BOUNDARY LATER IN THE EVENING. ANY SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOP AND CAN
MAINTAIN DISCRETE CHARACTERISTICS WILL POSE A RISK FOR VERY LARGE
HAIL, STRONG TORNADOES, AND DAMAGING WINDS. WITH TIME, THE COLD
FRONT WILL OVERTAKE THE DRYLINE DURING THE EVENING AND MOVE
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. LINEAR CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT,
POSING A DAMAGING WIND AND ISOLATED TORNADO RISK DURING THE
NIGHTTIME HOURS.
CAPPING, WEAKENING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND MORE MODEST VERTICAL SHEAR
WITH SOUTHERN EXTENT MAY LIMIT STORM POTENTIAL ALONG THE DRYLINE IN
WESTERN/WEST-CENTRAL TX.
..LEITMAN.. 04/15/2026
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