113
ACUS11 KWNS 151851
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151850
IAZ000-152015-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0448
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0150 PM CDT WED APR 15 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CENTRAL IOWA
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 119...
VALID 151850Z - 152015Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 119
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...STORMS MAY BE TRANSITIONING TO SURFACE-BASED, WITH AN
INCREASING RISK OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS A LOCALIZED
TORNADO RISK. VERY LARGE HAIL ALSO REMAINS POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION...A LONG-LIVED, PREVIOUSLY ELEVATED SUPERCELL CONTINUES
TRACKING ALONG THE COMPOSITE OUTFLOW/STATIONARY BOUNDARY IN CENTRAL
IA. AHEAD OF THIS STORM, TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING INTO THE UPPER 60S
TO NEAR 70 AMID LOWER/MIDDLE 60S DEWPOINTS, WHICH MAY YIELD A
TRANSITION TO SURFACE-BASED INFLOW. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
CORROBORATES THIS, AS BILLOW CLOUDS ARE TRANSITIONING TO HCRS
ALONG/IMMEDIATELY SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. THIS TRANSITION TO
SURFACE-BASED STORMS SHOULD FAVOR AN INCREASING RISK OF DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS A LOCALIZED TORNADO RISK -- GIVEN LOCALLY
BOOSTED SRH ALONG/IMMEDIATELY SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. VERY LARGE HAIL
ALSO REMAINS A CONCERN WITH SUPERCELLS.
..WEINMAN.. 04/15/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...DMX...
LAT...LON 41559377 41709411 42069419 42319407 42449369 42459280
42299255 41929250 41649277 41559377
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN
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