938
ACUS11 KWNS 151914
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151914
IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-152115-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0449
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0214 PM CDT WED APR 15 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF EASTERN KS...WESTERN/CENTRAL MO...AND FAR
SOUTHERN IA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 151914Z - 152115Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
SUMMARY...SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
THE PRIMARY CONCERNS ARE SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL, THOUGH A
COUPLE TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT. A WATCH ISSUANCE IS LIKELY
THIS AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION...THE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS GRADUALLY
DEEPENING BOUNDARY-LAYER CUMULUS ALONG/IMMEDIATELY EAST OF A COLD
FRONT MOVING INTO EASTERN KS. OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE ALONG THE EASTWARD-MOVING FRONT -- AIDED
BY INCREASING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT PRECEDING AN APPROACHING MIDLEVEL
TROUGH. THE SGF 18Z SOUNDING SAMPLED A MOIST AIR MASS WITH
RELATIVELY STEEP LAPSE RATES, AND CONTINUED DIURNAL HEATING WILL
FURTHER DESTABILIZE THE PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS (AROUND 2500 MLCAPE
EXPECTED).
THE COMBINATION OF THIS INSTABILITY AND 50-60 KT OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
WILL FAVOR CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION. INITIALLY, A LONG/MOSTLY
STRAIGHT HODOGRAPH (WITH A PRONOUNCED VEER-BACK SIGNATURE) COULD
FAVOR SPLITTING SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH A RISK OF VERY LARGE HAIL.
HOWEVER, WITH STORM MOTIONS AND DEEP-LAYER FLOW/SHEAR ORIENTED
PARALLEL TO THE EASTWARD-MOVING FRONT AND THE EXPECTATION FOR ROBUST
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW/CLUSTERING, UPSCALE GROWTH IS EXPECTED. THIS
WOULD PROMOTE AN INCREASING RISK OF SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS. WHILE
LESS CERTAIN (ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE MODE), A COUPLE TORNADOES CANNOT
BE RULED OUT, GIVEN A WELL-ESTABLISHED LOW-LEVEL JET AND ASSOCIATED
ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR/HODOGRAPH CURVATURE.
..WEINMAN/GLEASON.. 04/15/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...SGF...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...
LAT...LON 37789644 38429595 39349550 40159523 40919480 41169430
41259365 41189281 41019237 40669209 40019217 39149258
37919333 37159429 37079521 37179608 37409644 37789644
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN
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