125
ACUS03 KWNS 151933
SWODY3
SPC AC 151932
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0232 PM CDT WED APR 15 2026
VALID 171200Z - 181200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM OKLAHOMA
NORTHEASTWARD INTO IOWA AND ILLINOIS...
..SUMMARY
WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY VICINITY
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. A FEW TORNADOES, POSSIBLY STRONG, VERY
LARGE HAIL, AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
..SYNOPSIS
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS ON
FRIDAY, WITH PRIMARY MIDLEVEL SPEED MAX INTENSIFYING FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM
WILL ALSO INTENSIFY THE UPPER-WIND PATTERN FROM NORTHERN MEXICO INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM MN INTO KS
FRIDAY MORNING, PROGRESSING ROUGHLY TO A WI TO CENTRAL MO TO
NORTHERN OK LINE BY 00Z. MEANWHILE, A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH
INTO WI, EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD NEAR CHICAGO.
OF PARTICULAR NOTE FOR THIS SETUP ARE MODEL TRENDS, WHICH HAVE
CONSISTENTLY SHOWN THE COLD FRONT PUSHING FARTHER EAST AND SOUTH
THAN THE PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. THIS RESULTS IN A LOWER CONFIDENCE
FORECAST IN TERMS OF THE PRECISE AREA OF GREATEST THREAT AND DEGREE
OF TORNADO POTENTIAL.
DESPITE THESE UNCERTAINTIES, THE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
WILL BE QUITE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS, WITH STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES, AMPLE SHEAR, AND STRONG INSTABILITY. THESE FACTORS WILL
CLEARLY FAVOR VERY LARGE DAMAGING HAIL, A RISK OF TORNADOES, AND
EVENTUALLY DAMAGING WINDS. A BROAD 40-50 KT LOW-LEVEL JET WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR FOR TORNADOES, AND A COUPLE
STRONG TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE PRIOR TO THE COLD FRONT AND
AGGREGATE OUTFLOWS UNDERCUTTING THE INITIAL ACTIVITY. FAVORED AREAS
FOR TORNADOES WILL BE SOUTHERN KS INTO WESTERN/NORTHERN OK IN
PROXIMITY TO THE DRYLINE, AND FARTHER NORTH INTO EASTERN IA AND
SOUTHERN WI WHERE SRH WILL BE STRONGER NEAR THE LOW.
EVEN IF THE COLD FRONT SURGES FASTER THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED, A
WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND THREAT COULD OCCUR. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE MONITORED AS THE EVENT NEARS.
..JEWELL.. 04/15/2026
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