950
ACUS11 KWNS 151938
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151938
TXZ000-152215-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0450
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0238 PM CDT WED APR 15 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WESTERN INTO CENTRAL TEXAS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 151938Z - 152215Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...ISOLATED SEVERE WIND AND HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY SOME OF THE
STRONGER STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. A WW ISSUANCE IS UNLIKELY.
DISCUSSION...AHEAD OF AN EASTWARD PROGRESSING DRYLINE, TO THE WEST
OF A LOW-LEVEL WAA REGIME CONTAMINATED BY CLOUDS, A CU FIELD IS
RAPIDLY DEVELOPING GIVEN AMPLE INSOLATION. DEEP-LAYER ASCENT IS
RATHER WEAK SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER, BUT MODEST FLOW ABOVE 500 MB IS
RESULTING IN 40-50 KTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK/SPEED SHEAR. WHEN
CONSIDERING 2000+ J/KG MLCAPE, MULTICELLS AND PERHAPS TRANSIENT
SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE, ACCOMPANIED BY MAINLY A SEVERE WIND/HAIL
THREAT. THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF SEVERE WIND AND HAIL SHOULD BE
ISOLATED, SO A WW ISSUANCE IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.
..SQUITIERI/GLEASON.. 04/15/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...MAF...
LAT...LON 29620181 32640043 33199961 33219913 32949874 32329880
31469922 30479986 29850036 29410077 29350116 29620181
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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