169
ACUS11 KWNS 152053
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 152053
PAZ000-NYZ000-152300-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0452
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0353 PM CDT WED APR 15 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NORTHWEST PA AND SOUTHWEST NY
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 152053Z - 152300Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THE AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR INCREASING SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. AN EVENTUAL WATCH ISSUANCE IS POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EVOLVING AT THE NOSE OF A
30-KT SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET (PER VWP DATA) AND RELATED
WEAK LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION PLUME IN NORTHWEST PA INTO SOUTHWEST
NY. IN THE NEAR TERM, A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS COUPLED WITH
AROUND 40 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR COULD PROMOTE A COUPLE LOOSELY
ORGANIZED CELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY DAMAGING GUSTS AND
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. WHILE THE SEVERE THREAT MAY BE TOO
LOCALIZED/MARGINAL IN THE NEAR TERM FOR A WATCH, UPSTREAM
THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS SHOULD EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO THIS AREA WITH AN
INCREASING RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS. TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED, AND
AN EVENTUAL WATCH ISSUANCE IS POSSIBLE.
..WEINMAN/GLEASON.. 04/15/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...
LAT...LON 41057806 41027932 41277981 42167982 42627961 42777911
42837855 42537785 42177757 41697756 41057806
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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