778
ACUS11 KWNS 160344
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 160344
ARZ000-160515-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0461
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1044 PM CDT WED APR 15 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 126...
VALID 160344Z - 160515Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 126
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...OCCASIONAL WIND DAMAGE AND/OR A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH BOWING SEGMENTS/MESOVORTICES THROUGH 05-06Z.
DISCUSSION...THE BOWING LINE SEGMENT ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AR HAS
MAINTAINED INTENSITY FOR THE PAST 1-2 HOURS. THE DOWNSTREAM
ENVIRONMENT IS SUFFICIENTLY BUOYANT TO SUPPORT STRONG UPDRAFTS.
ADDITIONALLY, THE SRX VWP SHOWS A 40-50 KT REAR-INFLOW JET AND
LOW-LEVEL/DEEP-LAYER SHEAR VECTORS (PER LZK VWP) ARE ORIENTED
FAVORABLY ACROSS THE N-S LINE SEGMENT TO MAINTAIN UPDRAFTS TIED
CLOSELY TO THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLD POOL. IN THE NEAR TERM,
THESE FACTORS WILL MAINTAIN THE THREAT FOR OCCASIONAL WIND DAMAGE
AND A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO WITH MESOVORTICES IN THE LINE. BY
06-07Z, THE STORMS WILL LIKELY MOVE EAST OF ANY SUBSTANTIAL BUOYANCY
AND ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN.
..THOMPSON.. 04/16/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...LZK...
LAT...LON 34949259 34859334 34999363 35499346 35849323 35949285
35909242 35729216 34949259
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
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