699
ACUS03 KWNS 160707
SWODY3
SPC AC 160705
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0205 AM CDT THU APR 16 2026
VALID 181200Z - 191200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE OHIO VALLEY...
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS
AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY ACROSS PART OF THE OHIO
VALLEY.
..OHIO VALLEY
A LARGE-SCALE UPPER TROUGH ORIENTED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
PLAINS WILL SHIFT EAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES, MIDWEST AND TN VALLEY
ON SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT. STRONG DEEP-LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL OVERSPREAD THE OHIO VALLEY AHEAD OF AN EASTWARD-ADVANCING COLD
FRONT. THIS FRONT SHOULD BE LOCATED FROM LOWER MI INTO SOUTHEAST MO
SATURDAY MORNING, MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. MODEST BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. DAYTIME HEATING INTO THE 70S AND MODESTLY STEEP MIDLEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT WEAK DESTABILIZATION (GENERALLY LESS THAN
1000 J/KG MLCAPE). WHILE INSTABILITY WILL BE MODEST, STRONG LOW AND
MIDLEVEL FLOW WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED CELLS AND/OR LINE SEGMENTS
CAPABLE OF STRONG GUSTS. ANY DISCRETE CELLULAR ACTIVITY ALSO MAY
PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. THESE SEVERE RISK SHOULD GRADUALLY
WANE DURING THE EVENING WITH EASTWARD EXTENT.
..TX TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG A SOUTHEAST-ADVANCING COLD FRONT
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DEEP-LAYER FLOW WILL BE ORIENTED
PARALLEL TO THE FRONT, AND CONVECTION MAY LARGELY BE ANAFRONTAL OR
QUICKLY UNDERCUT BY THE FRONT. WHILE WEAK MUCAPE IS NOTED IN
FORECAST SOUNDINGS, SEVERE POTENTIAL IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..LEITMAN.. 04/16/2026
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