238
ACUS11 KWNS 162023
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 162022
KYZ000-ILZ000-TNZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-162215-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0465
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0322 PM CDT THU APR 16 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MISSOURI...NORTHERN
ARKANSAS...AND WESTERN KENTUCKY
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 127...
VALID 162022Z - 162215Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 127
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND CONTINUES WITHIN
W127.
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES ACROSS SOUTHERN
MISSOURI INTO NORTHEASTERN ARKANSAS. A FEW DISCRETE SUPERCELLS HAVE
DEVELOPED, WITH HISTORY OF HAIL 2-2.75 INCHES IN DIAMETER. GIVEN THE
MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY AND STEEP LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE
REGION FROM WESTERN MO/AR TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER, EXPECT
SUPERCELLS TO CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT FOR LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THOUGH AREAS OF STABLE BILLOW CLOUDS
CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN ARKANSAS, A FEW ATTEMPTS AT INITIATION HAVE
BEEN NOTED. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT A FEW ISOLATED CELLS
COULD DEVELOP ACROSS THIS REGION LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. THREATS
HERE WOULD SIMILARLY BE FORE LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL.
STORMS MAY CLUSTER THROUGH TIME, WITH A CHANGE IN MODE AND SHIFT
MORE OF A DAMAGING WIND THREAT. FURTHER EAST ACROSS WESTERN KY INTO
WESTERN TN, LESS FAVORABLE AIR AND DECREASING MOISTURE SHOULD LIMIT
THE SEVERE RISK WITH EASTERN EXTENT. LOCAL EXPANSION OF WW127 MAY BE
NEEDED IN WESTERN TN/KY IF STORMS PROGRESS INTO THIS REGION BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
..THORNTON.. 04/16/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA...
LAT...LON 38189050 38068996 37798913 37628892 37328889 36978890
36678899 36058978 35759243 36019353 36249366 36639352
37019339 37229330 37999244 38239194 38189050
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page