553
ACUS11 KWNS 162034
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 162033
OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-162130-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0466
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0333 PM CDT THU APR 16 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN INTO
NORTHEASTERN INDIANA AND NORTHWESTERN OHIO
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 162033Z - 162130Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A COUPLE OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON. COVERAGE OF SEVERE SHOULD BE QUITE SPARSE AT BEST, SO A
WW ISSUANCE IS NOT EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION...MULTICELLS HAVE INTENSIFIED UNDER A COLD POCKET ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LEVEL TROUGH AS THEY OVERSPREAD A MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYER. 20Z MESOANALYSIS DEPICTS 0-3 KM LAPSE RATES REACHING
8 C/KM AHEAD OF THE ONGOING STORMS, WHICH HAVE A HISTORY OF
PRODUCING MEASURED SURFACE GUSTS UP TO 40 KTS (PER AZO ASOS). THE
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT SIMILAR GUSTS MAY CONTINUE WITH THESE
STORMS FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE MORE HOURS GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED
LAPSE RATES. A 50+ KT GUST CANNOT BE RULED OUT. STILL, THE COVERAGE
OF 50+ KT GUSTS (IF ANY OCCUR) SHOULD BE TOO SPARSE TO WARRANT A WW
ISSUANCE.
..SQUITIERI/MOSIER.. 04/16/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...GRR...
LAT...LON 42548558 42198407 41888366 41498358 41058376 40738420
40658470 40728540 40958588 41428623 41688624 42548558
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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