560
ACUS11 KWNS 162251
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 162250
VTZ000-NYZ000-170015-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0471
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0550 PM CDT THU APR 16 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...UPSTATE NEW YORK AND VERMONT
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 162250Z - 170015Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING ACROSS
UPSTATE NEW YORK AND INTO VERMONT. THE NEED FOR A WATCH IS
UNCERTAIN, BUT THIS AREA WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT 1-2
HOURS.
DISCUSSION...A COUPLE OF INDIVIDUAL STORMS/SMALL CLUSTERS HAVE
FORMED AND MOVED EASTWARD INTO UPSTATE NY DURING THE PAST 30-60
MINUTES, JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND ON THE EAST EDGE OF THE
THICKER CLOUDS. SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE PEAKED IN THE LOW 80S TO
THE SOUTH OF A DIFFUSE BAROCLINIC ZONE NEAR THE CWA BORDER FOR
ALBANY AND BURLINGTON, WHERE SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE HELD NEAR 60 F.
THIS IS CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATE BUOYANCY ACROSS UPSTATE NY AHEAD OF
THE ONGOING STORMS. REGIONAL VWPS SHOW RELATIVELY LONG HODOGRAPHS
THAT WILL FAVOR SUPERCELL POTENTIAL, AND ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL SHEAR FOR
A LOW-END TORNADO THREAT. OTHERWISE, ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AND LARGE
HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. IT IS NOT CLEAR IF STORM
COVERAGE/INTENSITY WILL INCREASE FROM WHAT IS ALREADY OBSERVED, SO
THE NEED FOR A WATCH IS STILL UNCERTAIN.
..THOMPSON/GLEASON.. 04/16/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...
LAT...LON 44337413 44417378 44427344 44187291 43597275 43377284
43217303 43137363 43157455 43237500 43487514 43847490
44117465 44337413
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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