189
ACUS11 KWNS 171245
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 171244
MNZ000-WIZ000-171415-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0472
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0744 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SOUTHERN MN INTO EXTREME NORTHWEST WI
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 171244Z - 171415Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A THREAT FOR ISOLATED HAIL AND LOCALLY STRONG TO SEVERE
GUSTS MAY DEVELOP THROUGH MID MORNING.
DISCUSSION...ELEVATED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED IN THE VICINITY OF A
COLD FRONT ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN MN. SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THIS CONVECTION WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND POTENTIALLY INTENSIFY
THROUGH THE MORNING, WITHIN THE NORTHERN GRADIENT OF AN EXPANDING
BUOYANCY PLUME EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT PLAINS INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST. MODERATE MID/UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL SUPPORT SUFFICIENT
EFFECTIVE SHEAR FOR STORM ORGANIZATION AS CONVECTION DEEPENS AND
BECOMES ROOTED CLOSER TO THE SURFACE.
IN THE SHORT TERM, CONVECTIVE MODE MAY REMAIN RATHER COMPLEX, THOUGH
STRONG EMBEDDED UPDRAFTS AND POSSIBLY AN ELEVATED SUPERCELL COULD
EVOLVE OUT OF THE DEVELOPING CONVECTION. HAIL IS EXPECTED TO BE THE
PRIMARY NEAR-TERM THREAT, THOUGH LOCALIZED STRONG/DAMAGING GUSTS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
SOME GUIDANCE (NOTABLY RECENT HRRR RUNS) SUGGEST THAT THIS ONGOING
CONVECTION MAY EVENTUALLY BECOME SURFACE-BASED AND POSE A THREAT OF
ALL SEVERE HAZARDS ACROSS PARTS OF WI, DUE TO DOWNSTREAM LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND DIURNAL HEATING/DESTABILIZATION. HOWEVER,
THIS EVOLUTION MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL LATE MORNING OR DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THE NEED FOR WATCH ISSUANCE THROUGH MID MORNING IS
UNCERTAIN, BUT TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
MORE-ORGANIZED ELEVATED STORMS AND EVENTUAL TRANSITION TO
SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION.
..DEAN/SMITH.. 04/17/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...DLH...ARX...MPX...
LAT...LON 44979427 45449409 45739306 45569259 45149242 44729238
44539242 44229261 43909284 43649314 43529456 43779458
44979427
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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