292
ACUS11 KWNS 172210
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 172210
MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-180015-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0482
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0510 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CENTRAL THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN
MISSOURI...ADJACENT SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AND NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 130...131...
VALID 172210Z - 180015Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 130, 131 CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING SURFACE GUSTS AND PERHAPS BRIEF
TORNADOES MAY INCREASE THROUGH 6-8 PM CDT ACROSS THE MISSOURI OZARKS
AND MUCH OF CENTRAL MISSOURI. ADDITIONAL COUNTIES BETWEEN TORNADO
WATCHES 130 AND 131 WILL NEED TO BE ADDED TORNADO WATCH 130.
DISCUSSION...ALTHOUGH A TRAILING LINE OF STORMS MAY TEND TO BECOME
INCREASINGLY UNDERCUT BY THE SOUTHEASTWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT, A
CLUSTER OF STORMS EAST/NORTHEAST OF CHANUTE IS NOW EVOLVING JUST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS APPEARS TO BE AIDED BY FORCING FOR ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH A MID/UPPER SUBTROPICAL PERTURBATION/JET STREAK
WHICH IS FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD THE MISSOURI OZARKS THROUGH MUCH OF
CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO EARLY EVENING. EMBEDDED WITHIN SHEARED 30-50
KT SOUTHWESTERLY DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW, AND PRECEDED BY A MOIST
BOUNDARY-LAYER THAT APPEARS CHARACTERIZED BY CAPE UP TO 2000 J/KG,
THERE APPEARS POTENTIAL FOR CONSIDERABLE FURTHER UPSCALE GROWTH AND
ORGANIZATION, WHICH PROBABLY WILL OUTPACE THE EASTWARD ADVANCEMENT
OF THE COLD FRONT.
GRADUALLY, THIS MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A DEVELOPING MESO-BETA TO
ALPHA SCALE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AND RELATED STRENGTHENING OF
MID-LEVEL REAR INFLOW. AS THIS MIXES TO THE SURFACE, POTENTIAL FOR
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL INCREASE, WITH STRONGEST GUSTS AND/OR BRIEF
TORNADOES FOCUSED WITH EVOLVING MESOVORTICES ALONG THE GUST FRONT.
..KERR.. 04/17/2026
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TSA...ICT...
LAT...LON 39699330 39189140 37739229 36599499 37449544 37829496
38929427 39699330
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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